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FINAL+3ATL
CHC

CHC

81-63

1
4
ATL

ATL

65-79

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
33,430 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

CHC 1 · ATL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000001001
ATL300000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Chicago Cubs, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC81-63
1
4
ATL65-79
CHC81-63·ATL65-79
CHC

CHC

81-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000011
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.278
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-22001001
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-33000000
Team5-3131151018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.0533041
A. CivaleA. CivaleSP
2.0211011
Team8.0744052
ATL

ATL

65-79

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT27.354
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33110000
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44111000
SPRINT26.632
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-33010000
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000000
Team7-3131474205
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
6.1511160
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2000000
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    80 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      43%·83.7 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      31%·90.9 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      8%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Civale
    45 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      53%·89.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      27%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    89 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      38%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      100%·85.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4today
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1
Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4today
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CHC 4-1.

Win probability

ATL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 63% WP

Baldwin · doubled to center, Kim scored.

ATLTop 6th Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 92% WP

Crow-Armstrong · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000001001
ATL30000001—4

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · ATL won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Shaw 1

0
1

Inn 8

Olson 1

0

Inn 9

CHC
ATL

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  2. T9

    Castro struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  9. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  10. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  11. T9

    Hoerner grounded out to third.

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

    +0.9pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  14. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  15. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  16. T9

    Crow-Armstrong lined out to right.

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

    +2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  19. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  20. T9

    Iglesias relieved Kinley

    ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  23. B8

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  24. B8

    Baldwin flied out to right.

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·ATL 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

4

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

2

1

BB

0

8

K

5

6

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.0%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 100
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    254
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 96
    164
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    166
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    164
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs