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FINAL+1CHC
CHC

CHC

83-63

3
2
ATL

ATL

65-81

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,757 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 3 · ATL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0002100003
ATL0010100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 8, 25sim 100
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    254
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 96
    164
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    166
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    164
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC83-63
3
2
ATL65-81
CHC83-63·ATL65-81
CHC

CHC

83-63

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55130001
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-55010004
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-22011020
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-55121101
SPRINT25.716
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-44000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.867
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
1-22011001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-33010001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000011
M. BuschM. Busch1B
1-22010001
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-11000000
Team11-363631131313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
4.1622220
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
0.2000020
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0100010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0722270
ATL

ATL

65-81

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44010002
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-11011020
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000000
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-44000001
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44010002
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000000
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-33220000
SPRINT25.614
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-22011000
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000001
Team7-3131272027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
5.0733191
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0200010
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.1000120
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0200100
Team9.011333131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    79 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.2 mph·6% whiff
    • FC
      16%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      28%·77.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      28%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      80%·77.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      78%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.9 mph·50% whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    93 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      48%·79.2 mph·46% whiff
    • FF
      43%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.9 mph·71% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • CU
      74%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Lee
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2today

Season series

CHC win series 4-2

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1
Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 4th Inning

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ATL 3-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 42% WP

Kelly · homered to left (369 feet).

CHCTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 58% WP

Turner · doubled to left, Swanson scored.

CHCTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+11pp→ 86% WP

Crow-Armstrong · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0002100003
ATL0010100002

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

2

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

15

TB

10

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

13

K

7

20

LOB

12

Win probability

ATL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 4

Kelly 1

1
1

Inn 5

Suzuki 1

Olson 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
ATL

Play-by-play · 589 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Harris II grounded out to third.

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  6. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Albies grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

    −7pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  15. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  16. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  17. B9

    Kim struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

    −5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Kittredge relieved Keller

    ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  25. T9

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  26. T9

    Kelly flied out to right.

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 3·ATL 2

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.