HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -8.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    +1.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +58.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
SF

SF

72-70

2
3
STL

STL

71-72

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
26,085 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SF

SF

league avg

STL

STL

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.716

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.55

4.54

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.03

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

SF 2 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0002000002
STL0000000033

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off San Francisco Giants, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. WalkerSF−86.7pp
  2. 2M. WinnSTL+81.2pp
  3. 3G. HampsonSTL+55.5pp

SF · top performer

SF
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jose Fermin

Jose Fermin

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeRF
.2694020000
R. Devers1B
.2533000010
W. AdamesSS
.2293000001
D. SmithDH
.2924120000
M. Chapman3B
.2383120000
C. SchmittDH
.2383001002
D. GilbertCF
.2634011000
L. MatosRF
.2274000001
P. BaileyC
.2173000001
Team31272015

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. VerlanderSP
6.03000688
J. LucchesiRP
1.20001117
J. ButtoRP
0.1000004
R. WalkerRP
0.04330016
Team8.073317125

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarLF
.2404010000
I. HerreraDH
.2804000001
N. Gorman3B
.2214110003
M. WinnSS
.2543110001
J. CrooksC
.1433000000
T. SaggeseLF
.2504011001
J. WalkerRF
.2164012000
V. Scott IICF
.2263010000
J. FerminLF
.2942010011
- G. Hampson2B
.1030100000
Team31373017

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. PallanteSP
6.05221389
K. LeahySP
2.02000122
R. O'BrienRP
1.0000018
Team9.072215119

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Verlander
    88 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.5 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.8 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.8 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      65%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Walker
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      81%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Butto
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      75%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.3 mph·— whiff

STL

  • A. Pallante
    89 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.1 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      17%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.4 mph·9% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      23%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.8 mph·100% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      38%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·91.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3today
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3today
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4
Sep 23STLSTL6@SFSF5
Sep 24STLSTL9@SFSF8
Sep 25STLSTL3@SFSF4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
M. Chapman

M. Chapman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H

STLSTL
J. Fermin

J. Fermin

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat SF 3-2. Walker's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

STL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 78% WP

Nootbaar · grounded out to shortstop.

STLBottom 9th Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 30% WP

Winn · singled to right, Gorman to second.

STLBottom 9th Inning · 2-3
+34pp→ 100% WP

Walker · doubled to left, Winn scored and Hampson scored, Saggese to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0002000002
STL0000000033

Period scoring

SF won 1 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Walker 2

SF
STL

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 3

  2. B9

    Walker doubled to left, Winn scored and Hampson scored, Saggese to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 3

    +34pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 3

  4. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 3

  5. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 1

  6. B9

    Saggese singled to center, Gorman scored, Hampson to second, Winn to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 1

    +21pp

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  9. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Thomas Saggese

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 1

  10. B9

    Hampson ran for Crooks

    ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  11. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  12. B9

    Crooks hit by pitch, Winn to second, Gorman to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

    +15pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  18. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Jimmy Crooks

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  19. B9

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  20. B9

    Winn singled to right, Gorman to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

    +11pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  27. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  28. B9

    ·

    SF 2·STL 0

  29. B9

    Gorman singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SF 2·STL 0

    +10pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·STL 0

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

9

TB

8

0

HR

0

1

BB

1

5

K

7

14

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.3± 2.0low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    5.3± 3.4low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.6± 1.8high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.4± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.7low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.5low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    49.3%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.