HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:54 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
TOR

TOR

79-59

4
5
CIN

CIN

70-68

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
21,773 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

TOR

league avg

CIN

CIN

.702

OPS

.715

.708

.314

OBP

.319

.314

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.24

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.76

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

TOR 4 · CIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000001034
CIN0200000035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. McLainCIN+85.4pp
  2. 2B. LittleTOR−79.7pp
  3. 3E. PaganCIN−73.3pp

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerDH
.3003010011
A. BargerRF
.2494000002
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2874010000
B. Bichette3B
.3104242100
D. VarshoCF
.2283111111
A. KirkC
.2954011001
N. LukesRF
.2564000001
E. Clement2B
.2734000000
A. GimenezSS
.2143000001
- T. France1B
.3030000000
- M. StrawRF
.2720100000
Team33484227

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. BassittSP
6.052226107
Y. RodriguezRP
2.02000232
T. NanceRP
0.12220013
B. LittleRP
0.0211009
Team8.1115528161

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2674121010
N. MarteRF
.2885012003
E. De La CruzSS
.2724010001
A. HaysLF
.2614000001
G. LuxLF
.2743110000
S. Stewart1B
.3333110001
K. Hayes3B
.2744132000
J. TrevinoC
.2413000001
M. McLain2B
.2233110010
- W. BensonRF
.2211010000
- S. SteerLF
.2351000001
- M. AndujarDH
.3641000000
Team365115028

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
H. GreeneSP
6.151117101
S. BarlowRP
0.2000008
T. SantillanRP
1.00001013
E. PaganRP
0.13330016
Y. ZuluetaRP
0.2000007
Team9.084427145

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    107 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      42%·91.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      15%·71.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.3 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      8%·73.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      59%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      19%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      69%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Little
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • KC
      67%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • H. Greene
    101 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·99.5 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      77%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      23%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Zulueta
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

11

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5today
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5today
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 53pp · Top 9th Inning

TORTOR
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat TOR 5-4. Bichette's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (53pp).

Win probability

CIN vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 35% WP

Kirk · singled to left, Bichette scored, Varsho to second.

TORTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+53pp→ 83% WP

Bichette · homered to right center (381 feet), Straw scored.

CINBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+46pp→ 100% WP

Marte · singled to left, McLain scored and Friedl scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000001034
CIN0200000035

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Hayes 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Kirk 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
3

Inn 9

Bichette 2

Marte 2

TOR
CIN

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TOR 4·CIN 5

  2. B9

    Marte singled to left, McLain scored and Friedl scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 5

    +46pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  9. B9

    Brendon Little pitches to Noelvi Marte

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 5

  10. B9

    ·

    TOR 4·CIN 4

  11. B9

    Friedl hit a ground rule double, Hayes scored, McLain to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

    +34pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  15. B9

    Brendon Little pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 3

  16. B9

    Little relieved Nance

    ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  18. B9

    McLain singled to right, Hayes to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

    +11pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  23. B9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  24. B9

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  25. B9

    Andujar popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

    −8pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  29. B9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Miguel Andujar

    · ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

  30. B9

    Andujar hit for Trevino

    ·

    TOR 4·CIN 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

5

8

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

16

TB

16

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

7

K

8

10

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.9low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.5± 2.0low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.3high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 1.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(CIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.