MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAD

LAD

84-65

102

75-74

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

40,112 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(SF win)
45%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(SF win)
44%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
49.6%
P(SF win)
12%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.728

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.55

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 10 · SF 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	1	0	4	2	0	1	1	10
SF	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. OhtaniDH	.281	6	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. BettsSS	.263	4	3	3	0	0	1	0
T. HernándezLF	.251	6	2	4	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.296	6	2	3	1	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.228	5	2	2	2	0	1	0
A. CallLF	.241	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. RojasSS	.262	4	0	1	2	0	1	2
E. Hernández1B	.189	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
B. RortvedtC	.320	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
H. KimSS	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ConfortoDH	.200	4	0	3	3	0	0	0
Team		44	10	18	9	0	6	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.281

.263

.251

.296

.228

.241

.262

.189

.320

.283

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. GlasnowSP	6.2	3	1	1	4	4	108
E. HenriquezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KopechRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	22
K. YatesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	5	2	2	5	4	143

Player

T. GlasnowSP

6.2

108

E. HenriquezRP

0.1

M. KopechRP

1.0

K. YatesRP

1.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.262	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. Devers1B	.242	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. AdamesSS	.232	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Chapman3B	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. LeeRF	.266	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
W. Flores1B	.240	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SchmittDH	.236	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.225	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.171	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.217	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	5	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. RaySP	4.0	6	5	5	4	5	98
J. PegueroRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	29
S. BivensRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	2	25
J. BrubakerRP	2.0	4	1	1	0	1	31
C. SeymourRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	24
Team	9.0	18	10	10	6	9	207

Team

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.