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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

71-67

9
6
ATH

ATH

63-75

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,716 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 9 · ATH 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX2100202119
ATH0000000516

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Athletics and beat them, 9–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson

SS

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX71-67
9
6
ATH63-75
TEX71-67·ATH63-75
TEX

TEX

71-67

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-22221030
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33002011
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
2-55123101
SPRINT25.716
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-55121001
SPRINT26.735
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-55000003
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-55122103
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-44100011
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-55110001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-22200020
Team9-36369992711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0200160
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
2.0000020
C. BoushleyC. BoushleyRP
0.1444010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2211000
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0111120
Team9.09662110
ATH

ATH

63-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-44121011
SPRINT26.530
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
3-55132000
SPRINT27.148
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44001000
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44111000
SPRINT26.735
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-44011003
SPRINT25.716
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
0-44000001
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
0-44000003
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-33110001
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-44110002
Team9-36366960211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
6.0555272
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
0.1221210
E. NunezE. NunezRP
1.2011330
T. FergusonT. FergusonRP
1.0211000
Team9.09987112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    79 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.3 mph·4% whiff
    • SL
      39%·90.9 mph·62% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Maton
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      52%·90.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      31%·75.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·84.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Boushley
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      45%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.9 mph·0% whiff

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      58%·92.8 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.6 mph·42% whiff
    • FC
      12%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Nunez
    38 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      68%·98.7 mph·64% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.1 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·98.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Ferguson
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      47%·81.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

9

Runs

6

0

Errors

2

Current series

TEX wins series 4-2

Apr 23TEXTEX8@ATHATH5
Apr 24TEXTEX2@ATHATH5
Apr 25TEXTEX3@ATHATH4
Aug 30TEXTEX5@ATHATH2
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH3
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH6today

Season series

TEX wins series 8-5

Apr 23TEXTEX8@ATHATH5
Apr 24TEXTEX2@ATHATH5
Apr 25TEXTEX3@ATHATH4
Apr 29ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Apr 30ATHATH2@TEXTEX15
May 1ATHATH7@TEXTEX1
May 1ATHATH3@TEXTEX0
Jul 22ATHATH2@TEXTEX7
Jul 23ATHATH2@TEXTEX6
Jul 24ATHATH1@TEXTEX2
Aug 30TEXTEX5@ATHATH2
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH3
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 1st Inning

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
J. Wilson

J. Wilson

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATH 9-6.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 79% WP

Pederson · homered to right (418 feet), Smith scored.

TEXTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Jung · homered to left center (405 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX2100202119
ATH0000000516

Period scoring

TEX won 4 · ATH won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Pederson 2

1
0

Inn 2

Jung 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Langford 1

1
5

Inn 8

Langford 1

Wilson 2

1
1

Inn 9

Jung 1

Butler 1

TEX
ATH

Play-by-play · 638 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  3. B9

    Wilson grounded out to first.

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  7. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Jacob Wilson

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  8. B9

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  9. B9

    Butler doubled to center, Bleday scored.

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

    +1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  13. B9

    Bleday to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  14. B9

    Bleday to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  17. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 6

  18. B9

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  19. B9

    Gelof struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

    −1pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  26. B9

    Phil Maton pitches to Zack Gelof

    · ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  27. B9

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  28. B9

    Bleday walked.

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

    +1pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 9·ATH 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

9

Runs

6

9

Hits

9

0

Errors

2

18

TB

13

2

HR

0

7

BB

2

11

K

11

22

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    66
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    1910
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    189
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    122
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    137
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    1013
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.