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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TEX
TEX

TEX

72-67

7
5
ARI

ARI

68-71

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
26,489 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 7 · ARI 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TEX00200100227
ARI21000200005

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 98
    1910
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 97
    122
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 97
    66
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    63
    11(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    195
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    139
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Cody Freeman

Cody Freeman

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Tyler Locklear

Tyler Locklear

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TEX72-67
7
5
ARI68-71
TEX72-67·ARI68-71
TEX

TEX

72-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000002
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-55111102
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-33000002
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44100000
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-33000001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-33110011
SPRINT23.91
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
2-33123110
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-44100001
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11100010
D. MooreD. MooreCF
1-22010000
A. OsunaA. OsunaLF
1-11012000
SPRINT2872
J. BurgerJ. Burger1B
1-22111000
SPRINT2744
Team8-38387872310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
5.2555153
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
2.1100020
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0100010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0000020
Team10.07551103
ARI

ARI

68-71

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55111101
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT26.838
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44110000
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-22000000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44111003
SPRINT28.175
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-44021000
SPRINT26.428
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-44000001
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
1-22111110
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
0-33000002
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-22000001
AA. Del CastilloDH
0-11000001
A. ThomasA. ThomasCF
0-11000001
Team7-36365753110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
6.0433172
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0000010
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.1222000
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
0.2100110
J. BurgosJ. BurgosRP
0.2121110
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.1000000
Team10.08763102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • J. Beeks
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      77%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5today
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4
Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5today
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 46pp · Top 10th Inning

TEXTEX
C. Freeman

C. Freeman

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
T. Locklear

T. Locklear

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ARI 7-5. Osuna's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

ARI vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 9th Inning · 5-5
+30pp→ 44% WP

Freeman · singled to right, Burger scored, Higashioka to second.

TEXTop 10th Inning · 5-5
+22pp→ 57% WP

Duran · walked.

TEXTop 10th Inning · 7-5
+46pp→ 82% WP

Osuna · reached on infield single to first, Helman scored and Duran scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TEX00200100227
ARI21000200005

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · ARI won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Marte 1

0
1

Inn 2

Locklear 1

2
0

Inn 3

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Langford 1

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Burger 1

2
0

Inn 10

Osuna 2

TEX
ARI

Play-by-play · 627 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  3. B10

    Marte grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

    −4pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  6. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  7. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  11. B10

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  12. B10

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  13. B10

    Thomas struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

    −6pp

  14. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  15. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  16. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  17. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  18. B10

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Alek Thomas

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  19. B10

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  20. B10

    Del Castillo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

    −9pp

  21. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  22. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  23. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  24. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  25. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  26. B10

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  27. B10

    Armstrong relieved Martin

    ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  28. B10

    Del Castillo hit for Locklear

    ·

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  29. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    TEX 7·ARI 5

  30. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    TEX 7·ARI 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

7

Runs

5

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

16

TB

19

2

HR

3

3

BB

1

10

K

10

14

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.1%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.