MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYM

NYM

74-64

108

DET

80-59

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

38,912 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.7± 2.5low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

DET

.662

OPS

.715

▶

.706

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.88

Team ERA

◀

4.16

3.97

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.28

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 10 · DET 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	2	0	4	0	3	1	0	0	10
DET	1	0	2	2	1	0	1	1	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. SotoLF	.257	3	2	2	6	1	2	1
P. Alonso1B	.267	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. NimmoRF	.263	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.241	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. McNeil2B	.259	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.198	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
L. TorrensC	.226	3	2	3	2	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.249	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
L. AcunaCF	.238	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	10	8	10	1	7	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.257

.267

.263

.241

.259

.198

.226

.249

.238

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. ManaeaRP	3.2	8	5	5	1	6	83
G. SotoRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	11
R. StanekRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	14
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
R. HelsleyRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	5
B. RaleyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	15
E. DiazRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	14	8	8	2	10	154

Player

3.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.1

Team

9.0

154

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. JonesDH	.267	5	2	4	2	1	0	0
G. Torres2B	.264	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
W. PerezRF	.259	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.235	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.270	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
A. Ibanez2B	.245	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. DinglerC	.279	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.264	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
J. BaezSS	.261	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.257	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.206	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	8	14	7	2	2	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MortonSP	3.2	5	6	6	4	3	86
R. MonteroRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	17
D. SommersRP	1.0	2	3	3	0	1	21
T. MeltonSP	2.2	1	1	0	2	3	46
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	10	9	7	9	187

Team

NYM

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.