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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10NYY
NYY

NYY

68-57

13
3
TB

TB

61-65

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 13 · TB 3 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY32140200113
TB0200000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    189
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    197
    23(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    2510
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 94
    257
    24(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 94
    122
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesNYY win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 13–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

3.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY68-57
13
3
TB61-65
NYY68-57·TB61-65
NYY

NYY

68-57

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000011
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-55321111
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
4-55343201
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-33224210
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44111112
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-55010001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-55121102
SPRINT28.175
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-55110002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-44223210
SPRINT28.278
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-11010000
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
0-11000000
Team16-42421316139510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
6.0522250
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0000000
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
1.0211100
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0100010
Team9.0833360
TB

TB

61-65

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44011010
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-22000000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000010
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-11000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-55000001
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
2-44120001
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-33110012
SPRINT27.457
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT2993
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-22011001
SPRINT26.225
BB. Seymour1B
0-33000001
T. GrayT. Gray3B
1-33010000
Team8-3535383036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
3.0766235
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
3.0666243
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0100010
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000110
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0211011
Team9.01613135109

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    102 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.5 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.7 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      15%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.0 mph·20% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      74%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      38%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·73.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.6 mph·20% whiff

TB

  • S. Baz
    65 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.9 mph·31% whiff
    • KC
      31%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • I. Seymour
    62 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      37%·84.3 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      2%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      74%·98.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      26%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      43%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.9 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

8

13

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 5-1

Apr 17NYYNYY6@TBTB3
Apr 18NYYNYY1@TBTB0
Apr 19NYYNYY8@TBTB10
Apr 20NYYNYY4@TBTB0
Aug 19NYYNYY13@TBTB3today
Aug 20NYYNYY6@TBTB4

Season series

NYY lead series 8-4

Apr 17NYYNYY6@TBTB3
Apr 18NYYNYY1@TBTB0
Apr 19NYYNYY8@TBTB10
Apr 20NYYNYY4@TBTB0
May 2TBTB0@NYYNYY3
May 3TBTB3@NYYNYY2
May 4TBTB7@NYYNYY5
Jul 28TBTB4@NYYNYY2
Jul 29TBTB5@NYYNYY7
Jul 30TBTB4@NYYNYY5
Jul 31TBTB4@NYYNYY7
Aug 19NYYNYY13@TBTB3today
Aug 20NYYNYY6@TBTB4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.417 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TBTB
C. Morel

C. Morel

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TB 13-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Judge · homered to center (429 feet).

NYYTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+8pp→ 92% WP

Caballero · homered to right (322 feet), Volpe scored.

TBBottom 2nd Inning · 5-1
+7pp→ 17% WP

Fortes · singled to right, Pereira scored, Mangum to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY32140200113
TB0200000103

Period scoring

NYY won 5 · TB won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Judge 1

2
2

Inn 2

Caballero 2

Fortes 1

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

4
0

Inn 4

Stanton 3

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Bellinger 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Mangum 1

1
0

Inn 9

Caballero 1

NYY
TB

Play-by-play · 648 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 13·TB 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  3. B9

    Kim struck out looking.

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  10. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  11. B9

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  12. B9

    Gray singled to left.

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  16. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Tristan Gray

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  17. B9

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  18. B9

    Caminero grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  22. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  23. B9

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  24. B9

    B. Seymour flied out to left.

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  26. B9

    Tim Hill pitches to Bob Seymour

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  27. B9

    Hill relieved De los Santos

    ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 13·TB 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 13·TB 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    NYY 13·TB 3

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TB

Home

13

Runs

3

16

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

45

TB

9

9

HR

0

5

BB

3

10

K

6

12

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.