MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SD

63-51

105

ARI

54-60

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

20,903 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
47.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.7%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.9± 2.2low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Jordan LawlarARI
1.1± 0.9low

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.6high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Jordan LawlarARI
0.6± 1.1low
Gavin SheetsSD
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.658

OPS

.717

▶

.691

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.306

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.19

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 10 · ARI 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
SD	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5	10
ARI	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.261	6	1	0	1	0	1	2
L. Arraez2B	.294	6	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.302	5	2	3	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.266	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
X. BogaertsSS	.268	5	2	2	1	1	1	3
R. LaureanoLF	.364	6	1	3	3	0	0	2
J. Cronenworth2B	.240	4	2	2	2	0	2	0
J. Iglesias2B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
E. DiazC	.201	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.333	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
Team		44	10	14	10	1	9	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.261

.294

.302

.266

.268

.364

.240

.232

.201

.333

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Y. DarvishSP	4.0	3	3	3	2	5	72
A. MorejonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	24
W. PeraltaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
R. SuarezRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	15
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	11.0	6	5	5	5	11	174

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

11.0

174

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. CarrollRF	.247	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. Marte2B	.287	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. PerdomoSS	.278	3	3	1	0	0	2	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.249	5	2	2	4	2	0	1
T. Locklear1B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
J. McCarthyCF	.161	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.229	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. ThomasCF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.191	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.216	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.245	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	5	6	4	2	5	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. NelsonSP	5.2	6	2	2	2	8	100
K. NelsonRP	0.0	0	1	1	3	0	15
A. HoffmannRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	8
K. GravemanRP	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	23
J. CurtissRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	20
A. SaalfrankRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
J. WoodfordRP	2.0	6	5	4	0	0	37
Team	11.0	14	10	9	9	10	217

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.