• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2STL
SD

SD

55-48

7
9
STL

STL

53-51

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
30,601 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

SD 7 · STL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD2030200007
STL160101009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Jul 24·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off San Diego Padres, 9–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD55-48
7
9
STL53-51
SD55-48·STL53-51
SD

SD

55-48

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
3-55231101
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44221010
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
3-55132101
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-55121002
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-55110002
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-55011002
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000002
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-44000002
M. MaldonadoM. Maldonado★C
1-33010000
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias2B
0-11000000
Team13-414171362112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
3.1888232
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.1100210
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.1111011
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000010
K. HartK. HartRP
1.0200100
Team8.01299563
STL

STL

53-51

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
3-55233100
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
3-44232111
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-55110000
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-33124111
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-44010000
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-44000000
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33110012
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000002
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-22210020
SPRINT29.798
Team12-34349129356
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
5.01176052
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
0.1100110
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.2000040
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100020
Team9.013761122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Darvish
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      32%·93.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      16%·71.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      31%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Hart
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.0 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      6%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Estrada
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      31%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.0 mph·100% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    84 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      23%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.1 mph·46% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      45%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      5%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.5 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      31%·100.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      54%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Maton
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·76.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

12

7

Runs

9

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9today
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9today
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2
Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 11 H

How it ended

STL beat SD 9-7. Donovan's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

STL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 54% WP

Arraez · doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.

STLBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 55% WP

Contreras · doubled to left, Donovan scored, Contreras to third.

STLBottom 2nd Inning · 2-4
+28pp→ 81% WP

Donovan · homered to right (385 feet), Walker scored and Scott II scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD2030200007
STL16010100—9

Period scoring

SD won 3 · STL won 3

2
1

Inn 1

Arraez 1

Contreras 1

0
6

Inn 2

Donovan 3

3
0

Inn 3

Machado 2

0
1

Inn 4

Herrera 1

2
0

Inn 5

Sheets 1

0
1

Inn 6

Herrera 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
STL

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  2. T9

    Sheets struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  8. T9

    Machado to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  9. T9

    Machado to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  11. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Gavin Sheets

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  12. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  13. T9

    Bogaerts flied out to right.

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

    +5pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  16. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  17. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  18. T9

    Merrill struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

    +7pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  22. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  23. T9

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  24. T9

    Machado singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

    −11pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

  30. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    SD 7·STL 9

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

STL

Home

7

Runs

9

13

Hits

12

0

Errors

1

22

TB

23

2

HR

3

1

BB

5

12

K

6

18

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 94
    295
    26(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    1013
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    74
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 93
    259
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 92
    15
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 92
    189
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs