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FINAL+4NYY
NYY

NYY

66-57

12
8
STL

STL

61-63

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
33,800 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 12 · STL 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY20130330012
STL1400020018

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    1714
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    1218
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 92
    1117
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 92
    2510
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 91
    1211
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 91
    74
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 12–8.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Pedro Pages

Pedro Pages

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY66-57
12
8
STL61-63
NYY66-57·STL61-63
NYY

NYY

66-57

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
4-55440011
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
3-55237111
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-33122121
SPRINT26.838
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33001012
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
2-55021002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-55000003
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-55111101
SPRINT2622
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-55110002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-44320010
SPRINT28.278
Team15-40401215123613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
5.0877162
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000030
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
2.0100020
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.2311011
D. BednarD. BednarRP
0.1000000
Team9.012881123
STL

STL

61-63

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
2-55123102
SPRINT2872
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
3-55130001
SPRINT25.513
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-55011001
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-44000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44110001
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33212111
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000002
P. PagesP. Pages★C
3-44231101
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-22111000
SPRINT29.798
G. HampsonG. Hampson2B
0-11000001
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000001
Team12-383881283112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
5.0966272
R. MunozR. MunozRP
1.1233331
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
2.2000130
Team9.01512126133

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Fried
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      22%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·74.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.8 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      41%·88.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      41%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Williams
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      42%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·74.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.1 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·77.0 mph·— whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      34%·91.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.9 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      18%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Munoz
    41 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      34%·91.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    39 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      62%·84.0 mph·54% whiff
    • FF
      28%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • K. Leahy
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      36%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

12

12

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Aug 16NYYNYY4@STLSTL3
Aug 16NYYNYY12@STLSTL8today
Aug 17NYYNYY8@STLSTL4

Season series

NYY lead series 2-0

Aug 16NYYNYY4@STLSTL3
Aug 16NYYNYY12@STLSTL8today
Aug 17NYYNYY8@STLSTL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 4th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
P. Pages

P. Pages

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat STL 12-8. Rice's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 75% WP

Judge · doubled to left, Grisham scored, Rice to third.

STLBottom 2nd Inning · 2-5
+25pp→ 81% WP

Winn · homered to left (375 feet), Pagés scored and Scott II scored.

NYYTop 4th Inning · 6-5
+28pp→ 64% WP

Rice · homered to right center (429 feet), Caballero scored and Grisham scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY20130330012
STL1400020018

Period scoring

NYY won 5 · STL won 2

2
1

Inn 1

Judge 1

Herrera 1

0
4

Inn 2

Winn 3

1
0

Inn 3

Judge 1

3
0

Inn 4

Rice 3

0
0

Inn 5

3
2

Inn 6

Rice 3

Gorman 2

3
0

Inn 7

McMahon 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Pag 1

NYY
STL

Play-by-play · 650 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 12·STL 8

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  3. B9

    Herrera fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  7. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Ivan Herrera

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  8. B9

    Bednar relieved Leiter Jr.

    NYY 12·STL 8

  9. B9

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  10. B9

    Burleson reached on infield single to third, Winn to second.

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

    +1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  13. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  14. B9

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  15. B9

    Winn reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  19. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  20. B9

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  21. B9

    Pozo struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  25. B9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Yohel Pozo

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  26. B9

    Pozo hit for Hampson

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  27. B9

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  28. B9

    Pagés homered to left (429 feet).

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 8

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 12·STL 7

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

STL

Home

12

Runs

8

15

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

26

TB

24

3

HR

3

6

BB

1

13

K

12

19

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    48.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.4%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.