MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

68-55

119

NYM

64-58

Citi Field · Queens, New York

41,200 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
46.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.6%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Jared YoungNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.6± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
0.6± 1.3high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

NYM

.717

OPS

◀

.715

.664

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.58

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 11 · NYM 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	1	2	0	0	1	5	1	0	11
NYM	1	2	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.247	6	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.247	5	3	3	2	1	1	0
J. RodriguezCF	.259	6	0	2	2	0	0	3
E. SuarezDH	.135	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.285	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.214	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
D. Solano1B	.256	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.263	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Young2B	.256	4	0	3	3	0	1	0
D. MooreCF	.197	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		43	11	16	11	2	4	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.247

.259

.135

.285

.214

.256

.263

.256

.197

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. CastilloSP	4.0	9	6	6	1	5	95
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
J. KowarRP	0.1	3	3	3	0	1	9
M. BrashRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	12	9	9	1	12	152

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.253	5	2	3	4	2	0	0
J. SotoLF	.252	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
B. NimmoRF	.251	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.269	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. McNeil2B	.250	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MullinsCF	.171	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.254	4	2	2	4	1	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.236	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
Team		39	9	12	9	4	1	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. ManaeaRP	5.0	6	4	4	1	7	86
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	11
R. HelsleyRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	14
B. RaleyRP	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	17
R. StanekRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
F. MontasSP	2.0	3	1	1	2	0	44
Team	9.0	16	11	11	4	9	176

Team

SEA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.