MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16SEA

SEA

75-68

182

ATL

64-79

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

31,119 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 0.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.7high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Luis CastilloSEA
2.6± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

ATL

.713

OPS

.717

▶

.744

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.06

3.69

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.29

1.20

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 18 · ATL 2 (by 16)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	8	1	0	1	0	0	7	18
ATL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.242	4	2	2	3	0	1	0
C. RaleighC	.243	6	2	2	3	1	0	2
J. RodriguezCF	.265	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.206	5	2	2	3	2	1	1
J. Polanco1B	.258	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.256	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
M. GarverC	.212	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.264	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.273	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.285	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.209	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
H. FordC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		45	18	19	14	5	3	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.242

.243

.265

.206

.258

.256

.212

.264

.273

.285

.219

.209

.000

.286

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. CastilloSP	6.0	4	1	1	0	6	82
J. CastilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
E. HancockSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
L. JacksonRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	6	2	1	2	7	131

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.261	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. Olson1B	.270	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.242	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. KimSS	.294	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.244	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.256	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	6	2	1	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. WentzRP	2.1	7	8	6	1	2	65
D. DoddRP	3.1	5	3	3	0	2	58
H. HarrisRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	18
R. MunozRP	1.1	4	5	5	1	3	38
V. BrujanSS	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	6
Team	9.0	19	18	16	3	7	185

Team

SEA

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.