MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

CHC

67-51

TOR

70-50

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

43,003 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Ian HappCHC
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.6± 1.3high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high
Charles McAdooTOR
0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

TOR

.721

OPS

◀

.715

.702

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.30

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

CHC 1 · TOR 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
TOR	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Busch1B	.263	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.248	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. TuckerRF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KellyC	.273	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.230	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
N. Hoerner2B	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.253	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. ShawRF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. Castro2B	.185	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	4	1	0	7	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.263

.248

.270

.273

.257

.230

.289

.253

.227

.185

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. AssadSP	4.0	8	4	4	1	2	70
B. BrownRP	4.0	4	1	1	1	0	55
Team	8.0	12	5	5	2	2	125

Player

J. AssadSP

4.0

B. BrownRP

4.0

Team

8.0

125

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. LukesRF	.259	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.297	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.300	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.297	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.242	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
T. France1B	.387	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.288	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.220	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		34	5	12	5	2	2	2

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. BerriosSP	5.1	2	0	0	4	3	91
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12
T. NanceRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	13
B. LittleRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
L. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	4	1	1	7	9	154

Team

CHC

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.