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FINAL+8LAD
TOR

TOR

68-50

1
9
LAD

LAD

68-49

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
44,727 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

TOR 1 · LAD 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000000101
LAD000216009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR68-50
1
9
LAD68-49
TOR68-50·LAD68-49
TOR

TOR

68-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000012
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44121102
SPRINT27.354
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000001
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33000011
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-33010012
SPRINT24.74
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-22000022
B. KennedyB. Kennedy★1B
1-33010001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-33000002
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-11000000
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
1-11010000
SPRINT27.148
Team5-32321511514
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
4.2633222
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.1244100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.2222220
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.1000030
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000010
Team8.01099582
LAD

LAD

68-49

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44221111
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-55112001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44110011
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-33122110
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44122000
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-11110010
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33100011
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44112001
SPRINT27.867
J. DeanJ. DeanCF
0-11000001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000000
A. CallA. CallLF
0-11000000
Team10-35359109258
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
5.03003100
B. StewartB. StewartRP
1.0000110
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
2.0111021
A. DiazA. DiazRP
1.0100110
Team9.05115141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Dominguez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.1 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      55%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.6 mph·100% whiff

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

1

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9today
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9today
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TOR 9-1.

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 43% WP

Kennedy · hit a ground rule double.

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 70% WP

Conforto · walked.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 85% WP

Muncy · homered to left (342 feet), Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000000101
LAD00021600—9

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · LAD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Muncy 2

0
1

Inn 5

Ohtani 1

0
6

Inn 6

Rushing 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Clement 1

0

Inn 9

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  2. T9

    Barger popped out to third.

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  9. T9

    Alexis Diaz pitches to Addison Barger

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  10. T9

    Barger hit for Schneider

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  11. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  12. T9

    Lukes singled to left, Varsho to second.

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  18. T9

    Alexis Diaz pitches to Nathan Lukes

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  19. T9

    Lukes hit for Straw

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  20. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  21. T9

    Loperfido flied out to right.

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  28. T9

    Alexis Diaz pitches to Joey Loperfido

    · ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  29. T9

    Loperfido hit for Kennedy

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

  30. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·LAD 9

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

9

5

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

10

TB

18

1

HR

2

5

BB

5

14

K

8

14

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    145
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    26
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    22
    25(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    254
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    51.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.