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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+13BOS
BOS

BOS

66-55

14
1
HOU

HOU

67-53

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
34,396 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 14 · HOU 1 (by 13)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS00200514214
HOU0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    256
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    212
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    141
    19(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    88
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Houston Astros and beat them, 14–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony

LF

2.833OPS

2-1

AB-H

4

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Mauricio Dubon

Mauricio Dubon

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS66-55
14
1
HOU67-53
BOS66-55·HOU67-53
BOS

BOS

66-55

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-22411141
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-55222110
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110010
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-55222001
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44112011
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-66111000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44023010
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-55110002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
2-44223100
SPRINT257
A. SanchezA. SanchezC
0-11000000
Team13-4040141314385
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
6.0500180
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0100000
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
2.0311120
Team9.09112100
HOU

HOU

67-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
3-55030000
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-33000001
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-22000010
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-44000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-44120000
SPRINT25.513
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-33010012
SPRINT2744
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
1-44010001
M. DubonM. DubonSS
1-11010000
SPRINT26.428
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
0-11000001
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000001
Team9-35351900210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
5.0122530
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2111000
S. DubinS. DubinRP
0.1344102
CC. GordonSP
2.0654121
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
1.0222100
Team9.0131413853

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

14

Runs

1

3

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1today
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Season series

BOS leads series 4-1

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6
Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1today
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

BOSBOS
R. Anthony

R. Anthony

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.833 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
M. Dubon

M. Dubon

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

BOS beat HOU 14-1. Narv's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 66% WP

Story · hit by pitch, Narváez scored, Bregman to second, Anthony to third.

BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 68% WP

Correa · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Peña out at second.

BOSTop 6th Inning · 5-0
+19pp→ 95% WP

Narv · áez homered to left (383 feet), Yoshida scored and Rafaela scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS00200514214
HOU0000000011

Period scoring

BOS won 5 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Story 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

5
0

Inn 6

Narv 3

1
0

Inn 7

Abreu 1

4
0

Inn 8

Abreu 2

2
1

Inn 9

Story 1

BOS
HOU

Play-by-play · 647 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  3. B9

    Peña popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  7. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Jeremy Pena

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  9. B9

    Melton singled to left, Urías to third.

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  14. B9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  15. B9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  17. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Jacob Melton

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  18. B9

    ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  19. B9

    Urías grounded into fielder's choice to third, Diaz scored on throwing error by second baseman Rafaela, Trammell out at second.

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  21. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Ramon Urias

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 1

  22. B9

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  23. B9

    Trammell walked, Diaz to second.

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  28. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Taylor Trammell

    · ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  29. B9

    ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

  30. B9

    Diaz singled to right.

    ·

    BOS 14·HOU 0

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

14

Runs

1

13

Hits

9

3

Errors

1

24

TB

9

3

HR

0

8

BB

2

5

K

10

28

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.