MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8BOS

BOS

65-52

102

64-52

Petco Park · San Diego, California

44,061 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.6± 3.6low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.4± 2.0low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.7± 2.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

.696

OPS

◀

.715

.650

.314

OBP

◀

.319

.291

4.00

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.79

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.95

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.29

8.6

K / 9

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 10 · SD 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	3	2	10
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.281	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
A. Bregman3B	.295	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.264	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. StorySS	.259	3	2	0	0	0	2	2
M. YoshidaDH	.241	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
A. Toro1B	.255	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. AbreuRF	.250	4	2	1	2	1	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.262	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. WongC	.171	5	1	2	3	0	0	0
Team		35	10	10	9	2	8	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.281

.295

.264

.259

.241

.255

.250

.262

.171

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. BuehlerSP	6.0	4	0	0	2	4	96
G. WeissertRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
C. MurphyRP	0.1	1	2	2	4	0	34
G. WhitlockRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
I. CampbellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	6	2	2	7	6	168

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

168

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.258	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Arraez2B	.292	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
R. LaureanoLF	.300	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.245	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.198	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.326	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Iglesias2B	.233	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	2	6	2	0	7	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. PivettaSP	6.0	5	5	5	3	3	103
Y. MatsuiRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	19
S. ReynoldsRP	1.2	3	5	5	5	0	52
Team	9.0	10	10	10	8	4	174

Team

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.