HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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FINAL+1LAD
SD

SD

69-55

4
5
LAD

LAD

71-53

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
48,189 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

LAD

LAD

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.784

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.345

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

3.95

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.36

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.10

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 4 · LAD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0010110104
LAD400000015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 17·Final/SeriesLAD win series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Diego Padres, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. BettsLAD+45.2pp
  2. 2R. SuarezSD−29.7pp
  3. 3R. LaureanoSD+26.7pp

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2665011003
L. Arraez2B
.2915030000
M. Machado3B
.2915000002
J. MerrillCF
.2612000002
X. BogaertsSS
.2663100002
R. O'HearnRF
.1824011002
R. LaureanoLF
.3393121100
J. Cronenworth2B
.2432100011
F. FerminC
.3504020001
- G. Sheets1B
.2512110000
- J. Iglesias2B
.2291001000
Team3641041113

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Y. DarvishSP
4.03442582
J. AdamRP
1.00000215
J. EstradaRP
0.22000015
A. MorejonRP
1.10000213
R. SuarezRP
1.01110212
Team8.0655211137

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2834110001
M. BettsSS
.2423211110
W. SmithC
.3024000002
F. Freeman1B
.2984113101
T. HernándezLF
.2554010001
A. PagesCF
.2773121101
M. ConfortoDH
.1912000002
A. Freeland2B
.1671000010
B. Kennedy1B
.0003000002
- J. DeanCF
.0000000000
- A. CallLF
.1431000001
- M. RojasSS
.2391000000
Team305653211

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GlasnowSP
5.06221891
A. BandaRP
0.12110114
B. CaspariusRP
0.2000019
B. TreinenRP
1.01000123
A. DiazRP
0.11110115
A. VesiaRP
1.20000120
Team9.01044113172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Darvish
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      23%·94.0 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·71.5 mph·18% whiff
    • FS
      11%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      1%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Adam
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      47%·85.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      47%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SI
      69%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.7 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    91 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      37%·88.4 mph·53% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.8 mph·12% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.6 mph·20% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      35%·85.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.9 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      65%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Diaz
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      67%·88.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      56%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·99.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 6-1

Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5today

Season series

LAD lead series 8-2

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5today
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 8th Inning

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 5-4. Betts's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

LAD vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 90% WP

Freeman · homered to center (422 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.

SDTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+20pp→ 41% WP

Laureano · doubled to left, Bogaerts to third.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 4-5
+32pp→ 88% WP

Betts · homered to left center (394 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0010110104
LAD40000001—5

Period scoring

SD won 3 · LAD won 1

0
4

Inn 1

Freeman 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Laureano 1

1
0

Inn 6

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Iglesias 1

Betts 1

0

Inn 9

SD
LAD

Play-by-play · 582 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  2. T9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  9. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  10. T9

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Arraez fouled out to first.

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Luis Arraez

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  17. T9

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Tatis Jr. fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

    +6pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  22. T9

    Pages in right field.

    SD 4·LAD 5

  23. T9

    Dean in center field.

    SD 4·LAD 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 4·LAD 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 4·LAD 5

  26. B8

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  27. B8

    T. Hernández struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 4·LAD 5

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

19

TB

15

1

HR

3

1

BB

2

13

K

11

17

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.4%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.