MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BOS

BOS

69-59

NYY

69-58

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

47,036 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.3%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Trent GrishamNYY
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.3high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

NYY

.696

OPS

.715

▶

.763

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.331

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.10

3.89

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.36

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 6 · NYY 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	6
NYY	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.286	5	2	2	3	1	1	1
A. Bregman3B	.303	5	0	3	0	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.261	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.259	3	1	1	0	0	2	2
N. LoweDH	.250	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.236	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.250	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. HamiltonSS	.178	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
C. NarvaezC	.243	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
R. Gonzalez1B	.292	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	10	5	1	9	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.286

.303

.261

.259

.250

.236

.250

.178

.243

.292

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. GiolitoSP	4.2	5	3	3	3	4	97
J. WilsonRP	0.1	1	0	0	2	1	21
G. WeissertRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	23
S. MatzSP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	13
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	8	3	3	5	6	175

Player

4.2

0.1

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

175

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.245	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.329	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.272	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. StantonDH	.303	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Rice1B	.243	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.239	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.282	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. VolpeSS	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	8	3	1	5	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. GilSP	5.0	4	2	1	5	3	93
C. DovalRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	13
M. Leiter Jr.RP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
L. WeaverRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	1	32
T. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
Y. De los SantosRP	1.1	1	2	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	10	6	3	9	5	178

Team

BOS

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.