HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2DET
KC

KC

66-63

5
7
DET

DET

77-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
33,467 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

KC

KC

league avg

DET

DET

.694

OPS

.717

▶

.705

.316

OBP

.319

.315

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.06

4.44

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.94

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 5 · DET 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0030000025
DET001002407

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesDET wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1Z. McKinstryDET+44.4pp
  2. 2B. FalterKC−40.0pp
  3. 3A. ZerpaKC−37.5pp

KC · top performer

KC
Kyle Isbel

Kyle Isbel

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Zach McKinstry

Zach McKinstry

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2463020000
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2945111000
V. Pasquantino1B
.2635122100
M. Garcia3B
.3014120011
S. PerezC
.2473012000
A. Frazier2B
.2913000011
J. India2B
.2344000000
J. RaveRF
.1994000000
K. IsbelCF
.2662120000
- R. GrichukRF
.2501110010
- N. Loftin2B
.2061000010
Team355115142

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. BergertSP
5.23221590
A. ZerpaRP
0.03110012
J. SchreiberRP
0.1000005
B. FalterRP
2.06441257
Team8.0127727164

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Keith3B
.2643000002
G. Torres2B
.2615221000
K. CarpenterRF
.2614000001
R. GreeneLF
.2633112110
S. Torkelson1B
.2423010010
W. PerezRF
.2654021001
D. DinglerC
.2714000002
Z. McKinstry2B
.2654231100
J. BaezSS
.2674110001
- A. Ibanez2B
.2522121000
Team367126227

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. MizeSP
5.29331087
D. SommersRP
0.10002016
K. FinneganRP
2.00001123
W. VestRP
1.02220120
Team9.0115542146

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • R. Bergert
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.6 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Falter
    57 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      65%·91.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      7%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      40%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      40%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·80.8 mph·— whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    87 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·87.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SV
      14%·84.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FS
      52%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      48%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      40%·88.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Sommers
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      50%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

12

5

Runs

7

1

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 5-2

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7today
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8

Season series

DET leads series 6-2

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7today
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 6th Inning

KCKC
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Bergert

R. Bergert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

DETDET
Z. McKinstry

Z. McKinstry

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 7-5. Greene's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+22pp→ 69% WP

Perez · doubled to left, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.

DETBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+34pp→ 61% WP

Greene · homered to right center (435 feet), Torres scored.

DETBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+20pp→ 91% WP

Báez singled to right, McKinstry scored on throwing error by right fielder Grichuk, Báez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0030000025
DET00100240—7

Period scoring

KC won 1 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
1

Inn 3

Perez 2

McKinstry 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Greene 2

0
4

Inn 7

Torres 1

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Pasquantino 2

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 594 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  2. T9

    Garcia struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  7. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Maikel Garcia

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  8. T9

    ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  9. T9

    Pasquantino homered to right (411 feet), Grichuk scored.

    · ·

    KC 5·DET 7

    −0.7pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  11. T9

    Grichuk to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  12. T9

    Grichuk to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  14. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    KC 5·DET 7

  15. T9

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  16. T9

    Witt Jr. flied out to center.

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

    +1pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  19. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  20. T9

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  21. T9

    Grichuk singled to right.

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

    −0.8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  29. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

  30. T9

    ·

    KC 3·DET 7

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

5

Runs

7

11

Hits

12

1

Errors

1

15

TB

22

1

HR

2

4

BB

2

2

K

7

20

LOB

10

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Tarik SkubalDET
    6.1± 2.9low
  • Noah CameronKC
    5.0± 3.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    4.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Kameron MisnerKC
    1.5± 0.8low
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kerry CarpenterDET
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.8± 2.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.