HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
NYM

NYM

62-44

5
3
SF

SF

54-52

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,124 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

NYM

league avg

SF

SF

.664

OPS

.715

▶

.728

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.309

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.13

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.54

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · SF 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0010102015
SF0001200003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. SengaNYM−51.4pp
  2. 2S. BivensSF−37.0pp
  3. 3R. MauricioNYM+35.3pp

NYM · top performer

NYM
Ronny Mauricio

Ronny Mauricio

SS

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoRF
.2615011001
F. LindorSS
.2495001002
J. SotoLF
.2524111111
P. Alonso1B
.2665000002
J. McNeil2B
.2524020000
S. MarteRF
.2893020010
B. Baty3B
.2353000011
F. AlvarezC
.2504220001
R. MauricioSS
.2524142100
- T. TaylorCF
.2040000000
- L. AcunaCF
.2390100000
Team375125238

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. SengaSP
5.04335392
J. ButtoRP
1.00000119
G. SotoRP
1.00000115
R. GarrettRP
0.21000218
B. RaleyRP
0.1100008
E. DiazRP
1.00002225
Team9.063379177

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeRF
.2523000020
H. RamosLF
.2683000011
R. Devers1B
.2364000010
W. AdamesSS
.2335120001
M. Chapman3B
.2435223203
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2323000011
D. SmithDH
.2552010010
P. BaileyC
.2044000002
B. Wisely2B
.2053000011
- W. Flores1B
.2481010000
Team33363279

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. GageRP
1.00000110
S. BivensRP
3.06221358
J. LucchesiRP
1.11000017
R. RodriguezRP
1.12221325
T. RogersRP
0.1000014
T. BeckRP
1.01000012
S. HjelleRP
1.02111017
Team9.0125538143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • K. Senga
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FO
      32%·82.6 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·71.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      84%·98.0 mph·57% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Butto
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • CH
      42%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·89.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      53%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Raley
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      38%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.3 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • S. Bivens
    58 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      34%·94.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      31%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Rodriguez
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • CU
      47%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Hjelle
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      53%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      41%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      6%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Beck
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·75.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3today

Season series

NYM lead series 3-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3today
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 5th Inning

NYMNYM
R. Mauricio

R. Mauricio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

SFSF
M. Chapman

M. Chapman

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

S. Bivens

S. Bivens

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 5-3. Chapman's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+23pp→ 52% WP

Chapman · homered to left center (413 feet).

SFBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+34pp→ 69% WP

Chapman · homered to center (410 feet), Adames scored.

NYMTop 7th Inning · 4-3
+25pp→ 64% WP

J. Soto · homered to left (374 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0010102015
SF0001200003

Period scoring

NYM won 3 · SF won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lindor 1

0
1

Inn 4

Chapman 1

1
2

Inn 5

Mauricio 1

Chapman 2

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Mauricio 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Nimmo 1

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 620 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 5·SF 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  3. B9

    Chapman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

    −17pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  8. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  10. B9

    Adames struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

    −16pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  14. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Willy Adames

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  15. B9

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  16. B9

    Devers walked, Ramos to second, Lee to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

    +11pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  23. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Rafael Devers

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  24. B9

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  25. B9

    Ramos hit by pitch, Lee to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

    +11pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  27. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  28. B9

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

  29. B9

    Lee walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

    +7pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 3

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

5

Runs

3

12

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

24

TB

12

2

HR

2

3

BB

7

8

K

9

18

LOB

22

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.7low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.5low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.6± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.2%

    P(SF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.2%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.