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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
HOU

HOU

58-42

6
3
ARI

ARI

50-51

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
20,144 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · ARI 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0310002006
ARI1010100003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Brice Matthews

Brice Matthews

CF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
James McCann

James McCann

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU58-42
6
3
ARI50-51
HOU58-42·ARI50-51
HOU

HOU

58-42

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-55010001
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010000
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44110001
SPRINT24.22
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.920
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT2744
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33100011
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
2-44120001
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
2-44225202
SPRINT28.278
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
0-44000002
Team10-363661062110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
CC. Gordon★SP
5.2732241
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.1000110
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0100200
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
1.0000200
Team9.0832751
ARI

ARI

50-51

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44110011
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-55111002
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-33001010
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44111110
SPRINT25.818
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT23.81
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-44000000
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
2-33020010
SPRINT25.29
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-22010021
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000010
Team8-3333383175
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0766162
K. GravemanK. GravemanRP
1.0100000
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0100020
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
1.0100020
Team9.010661102

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3today
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3today
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOUHOU
B. Matthews

B. Matthews

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
J. McCann

J. McCann

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ARI 6-3. Matthews's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+28pp→ 59% WP

Matthews · homered to left center (397 feet), Trammell scored and Dubón scored.

HOUTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 73% WP

Walker · doubled to right, Caratini scored.

HOUTop 7th Inning · 6-3
+18pp→ 90% WP

Matthews · homered to left center (423 feet), McCormick scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0310002006
ARI1010100003

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · ARI won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Carroll 1

3
0

Inn 2

Matthews 3

1
1

Inn 3

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Matthews 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
ARI

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  3. B9

    Naylor flied out to right.

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  5. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  6. B9

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  7. B9

    Suárez walked, Gurriel Jr. to second.

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

    +3pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  12. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  13. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  14. B9

    Gurriel Jr. walked.

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

    +1pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  22. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  23. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  24. B9

    Carroll lined out to center.

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

    −1pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  29. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

  30. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ARI 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

6

Runs

3

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

18

TB

13

2

HR

1

1

BB

7

10

K

5

10

LOB

17

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    169
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 31, 25sim 95
    136
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    134
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    144
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    63
    11(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    215
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ARI vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    47.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175