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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12BOS
BOS

BOS

59-51

13
1
MIN

MIN

51-57

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
29,146 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 13 · MIN 1 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS01104200513
MIN0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 97
    28
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    196
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    24
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    1612
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    135
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 13–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS59-51
13
1
MIN51-57
BOS59-51·MIN51-57
BOS

BOS

59-51

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-55220001
SPRINT27.457
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-55001000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
3-55334101
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-33221111
SPRINT27.969
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-55111002
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44123112
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-55123102
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-55010002
C. WongC. Wong★C
2-44220010
D. HamiltonD. HamiltonSS
1-11110000
Team16-42421316134311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
7.0511441
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
2.0000000
Team9.0511441
MIN

MIN

51-57

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000000
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-22000020
SPRINT27.457
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000000
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33111110
SPRINT2622
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-33020001
SPRINT27.662
D. Keirsey Jr.D. Keirsey Jr.★CF
0-33000002
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000000
Team5-3030151144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
4.1855041
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1.0322002
SPRINT27.457
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2111220
N. DavisN. DavisRP
2.0122031
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000120
Team9.01613133114

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      35%·95.0 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.9 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      42%·75.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·78.6 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    74 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      22%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davis
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·79.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      3%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      35%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      22%·88.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Clemens
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • EP
      90%·59.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      10%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • ST
      50%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

5

13

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 2MINMIN1@BOSBOS6
May 3MINMIN4@BOSBOS3
May 4MINMIN5@BOSBOS4
Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

MINMIN
M. Wallner

M. Wallner

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H

How it ended

BOS beat MIN 13-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 69% WP

Story · homered to left (369 feet).

MINBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 43% WP

Wallner · homered to left (403 feet).

BOSTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 88% WP

Duran · singled to center, Wong scored and Anthony scored, Duran to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS01104200513
MIN0100000001

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · MIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Story 1

Wallner 1

1
0

Inn 3

Toro 1

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Duran 2

2
0

Inn 6

Duran 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

5
0

Inn 9

Gonz 3

BOS
MIN

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  3. B9

    Wallner grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  9. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Matt Wallner

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  10. B9

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  11. B9

    Lewis popped out to second.

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  17. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  18. B9

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  19. B9

    France flied out to right.

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  23. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Ty France

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  26. T9

    ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  27. T9

    Toro grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela out at second.

    · ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 13·MIN 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

13

Runs

1

16

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

32

TB

8

4

HR

1

3

BB

4

11

K

4

19

LOB

10

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.5%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.6%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872