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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

58-51

8
5
MIN

MIN

51-56

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
27,460 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 8 · MIN 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0040110028
MIN0000102025

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Brooks Lee

Brooks Lee

SS

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS58-51
8
5
MIN51-56
BOS58-51·MIN51-56
BOS

BOS

58-51

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-44111011
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-55210001
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-44121111
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-55223102
SPRINT27.969
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-44011010
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-55110000
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-33010000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33111000
SPRINT28.790
Team10-37378107236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
6.0511250
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0222011
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100020
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.2221011
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
0.1000010
Team9.010542102
MIN

MIN

51-56

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-22000011
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-11010000
SPRINT27.251
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-55000003
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-55010001
SPRINT27.251
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010000
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33010011
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.662
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000000
R. JeffersR. JeffersC
1-22210000
SPRINT26.326
B. LeeB. LeeSS
3-44235200
SPRINT26.428
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000001
Team10-383851052210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. OhlP. Ohl★RP
3.0544141
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
2.0111011
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
2.0211210
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000000
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0220000
Team9.01086362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    101 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.0 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      29%·81.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      20%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      12%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      42%·96.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • FF
      33%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·101.3 mph·100% whiff

MIN

  • P. Ohl
    72 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·81.2 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      55%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.2 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.9 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • KC
      55%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      32%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      38%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

8

Runs

5

2

Errors

2

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5today
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1

Season series

MIN leads series 3-2

May 2MINMIN1@BOSBOS6
May 3MINMIN4@BOSBOS3
May 4MINMIN5@BOSBOS4
Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5today
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
B. Lee

B. Lee

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

P. Ohl

P. Ohl

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat MIN 8-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 60% WP

Rafaela · tripled to center.

BOSTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+13pp→ 87% WP

Story · homered to left center (404 feet), Bregman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0040110028
MIN0000102025

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
0

Inn 3

Story 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Duran 1

Lee 1

1
0

Inn 6

Rafaela 1

0
2

Inn 7

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 8

2
2

Inn 9

Story 1

Lee 2

BOS
MIN

Play-by-play · 630 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  3. B9

    Gasper struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  7. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  8. B9

    Chapman relieved Alcala

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  9. B9

    Gasper hit for Clemens

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  10. B9

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  11. B9

    Lewis singled to left.

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

    +0.9pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  15. B9

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  16. B9

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  17. B9

    Castro struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  21. B9

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  22. B9

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  23. B9

    Lee homered to right (360 feet), Jeffers scored.

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

    +1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 3

  28. B9

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 5

  29. B9

    ·

    BOS 8·MIN 3

  30. B9

    Jeffers safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Story.

    · ·

    BOS 8·MIN 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

8

Runs

5

10

Hits

10

2

Errors

2

23

TB

16

2

HR

2

3

BB

2

6

K

10

15

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    46.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.8%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 98
    196
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    135
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    213
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    134
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    123
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs