MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAA

TEX

56-52

LAA

53-55

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

26,390 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low

Hits

Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Mike TroutLAA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TEX 5 · LAA 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	5
LAA	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Haggerty★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
W. Langford★LF	3-5	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
M. Semien★2B	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
A. Garcia★RF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Jung★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Heim★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Higashioka★C	3-4	4	3	3	2	2	0	1
SPRINT23.91
J. Smith★2B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.354
E. Duran★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	14-39	39	5	14	4	2	0	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

3-5

2-5

1-5

1-4

0-4

3-4

2-4

1-3

0-1

0-1

Team

14-39

	Pitching
P. Corbin★SP	5.0	3	3	2	3	6	0
J. GrayRP	0.2	3	4	4	3	1	0
C. BoushleyRP	1.2	0	1	1	1	1	0
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	8.0	6	8	7	7	9	0

Pitching

Player

5.0

0.2

1.2

0.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
M. Trout★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
N. Schanuel★1B	0-2	2	1	0	1	0	2	0
SPRINT25.920
T. Ward★LF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Adell★RF	2-3	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.867
L. Rengifo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. d'Arnaud★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
G. Campero★OF	1-3	3	2	1	2	0	1	0
K. Newman★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. Moncada3B	1-2	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
Team	6-28	28	8	6	7	0	7	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI