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FINAL+1MIN
BOS

BOS

57-51

4
5
MIN

MIN

51-55

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
24,443 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

BOS 4 · MIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000300014
MIN0020010025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    134
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    123
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    123
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    213
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    169
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Boston Red Sox, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS57-51
4
5
MIN51-55
BOS57-51·MIN51-55
BOS

BOS

57-51

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-33121021
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-55123101
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010012
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-55000003
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44010001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
3-44030000
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000001
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-33110010
Team10-363641041410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. FittsR. Fitts★SP
4.0422321
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.1111020
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.2000210
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.2100110
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1000000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.1222000
Team8.1855661
MIN

MIN

51-55

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-22000010
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33100000
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55010001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-22010010
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT27.251
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-22010001
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-33000011
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-22101010
SPRINT22.90
D. Keirsey Jr.D. Keirsey Jr.★CF
2-44122102
B. LeeB. LeeSS
1-22012001
SPRINT26.428
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11000010
Team8-3030585166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
4.2733251
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.1100010
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000020
B. StewartB. StewartRP
1.0100010
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0111210
Team9.010444101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • R. Fitts
    58 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.7 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·90.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      61%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      32%·76.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      39%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      28%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·78.7 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.8 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    99 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      61%·93.9 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Duran
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·99.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      33%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      30%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Topa
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Stewart
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·97.4 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • ST
      46%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      23%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5today
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1

Season series

MIN leads series 3-1

May 2MINMIN1@BOSBOS6
May 3MINMIN4@BOSBOS3
May 4MINMIN5@BOSBOS4
Jul 28BOSBOS4@MINMIN5today
Jul 29BOSBOS8@MINMIN5
Jul 30BOSBOS13@MINMIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 9th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

R. Fitts

R. Fitts

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
D. Keirsey Jr.

D. Keirsey Jr.

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 5-4. Lee's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Win probability

MIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+28pp→ 66% WP

Bregman · homered to center (418 feet), Toro scored and Anthony scored.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+27pp→ 88% WP

Anthony · singled to center, Hamilton scored.

MINBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+47pp→ 100% WP

Lee · singled to left, Castro scored and Gasper scored, Correa to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000300014
MIN0020010025

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · MIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Bregman 3

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
2

Inn 9

Anthony 1

Lee 2

BOS
MIN

Play-by-play · 637 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 5

  2. B9

    Lee singled to left, Castro scored and Gasper scored, Correa to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 5

    +47pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  6. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 5

  7. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  8. B9

    Correa grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castro to second, Gasper to third, Keirsey Jr. out at home.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

    −21pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  18. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  19. B9

    Castro hit by pitch, Gasper to second, Keirsey Jr. to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

    +23pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  21. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  22. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  23. B9

    Gasper hit by pitch, Keirsey Jr. to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

    +17pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  27. B9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  28. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

  29. B9

    Keirsey Jr. singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

    +16pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·MIN 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

15

TB

11

1

HR

1

4

BB

6

10

K

6

20

LOB

22

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    45.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.6%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872