MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAA

LAD

68-51

LAA

57-62

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

44,571 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
45.3%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.3%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shohei OhtaniLAD
6.8± 3.4low
Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low

Hits

Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Andy PagesLAD
1.1± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 2.6high
Andy PagesLAD
2.2± 3.0high
Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Andy PagesLAD
0.9± 1.0high
Mike TroutLAA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Eric LauerLAD
3.1± 2.8low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAD 4 · LAA 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4
LAA	2	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Ohtani★SP	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
SPRINT2744
M. Betts★SS	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Smith★C	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
M. Muncy★3B	1-3	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
SPRINT27.354
A. Pages★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.175
M. Conforto★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Freeland★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Call★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. RushingC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RojasSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	7-32	32	4	7	4	2	4	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

2-4

0-3

2-4

1-3

1-3

0-3

0-3

0-4

0-1

0-1

Team

7-32

	Pitching
Y. Yamamoto★SP	4.2	6	6	6	5	6	1
A. DiazRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. DreyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BandaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0
Team	8.0	8	7	7	6	8	2

Pitching

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	3-3	3	3	3	2	2	2	0
SPRINT27.148
N. Schanuel★1B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.920
M. Trout★CF	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
SPRINT28.688
T. Ward★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
Y. Moncada★3B	2-3	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
J. Adell★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rengifo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. d'Arnaud★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Teodosio★LF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
SPRINT29.395
O. Peraza2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CamperoOF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0

Team	8-31	31	7	8	7	2	6	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

Z. Neto★SS

3-3