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FINAL+1LAA
LAD

LAD

68-52

6
7
LAA

LAA

58-62

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,741 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAD 6 · LAA 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
LAD12002000106
LAA30110000117

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesLAA win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Dalton Rushing

Dalton Rushing

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
LAD68-52
6
7
LAA58-62
LAD68-52·LAA58-62
LAD

LAD

68-52

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33211120
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44110001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-55120000
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-55022002
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000012
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-44021010
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-33000002
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-11100010
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
2-33122100
SPRINT27.867
A. CallA. CallLF
0-22000001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
1-22010001
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-11000000
Team11-37376116259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
5.0555261
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.2100000
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.1000000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000120
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2111300
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
0.1210010
Team9.0976691
LAA

LAA

58-62

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000010
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33101010
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33110022
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-55322102
SPRINT27.457
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-22011001
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-55012001
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-33210011
SPRINT27.148
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000011
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33011000
C. MooreC. Moore2B
2-33020001
Team9-3434797169
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
VV. Mederos★SP
4.0333331
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
0.2322100
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.1000110
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0200000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0100010
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0111011
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0000010
Team10.01166592

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • E. Henriquez
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      53%·101.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      24%·98.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      18%·102.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·90.5 mph·— whiff

LAA

  • R. Zeferjahn
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      47%·84.5 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      39%·97.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·75.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chafin
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      55%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·80.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      100%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

6

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 3-0

Aug 12LADLAD4@LAALAA7
Aug 13LADLAD6@LAALAA7today
Aug 14LADLAD5@LAALAA6

Season series

LAA lead series 5-0

May 17LAALAA6@LADLAD2
May 18LAALAA11@LADLAD9
May 18LAALAA6@LADLAD4
Aug 12LADLAD4@LAALAA7
Aug 13LADLAD6@LAALAA7today
Aug 14LADLAD5@LAALAA6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
D. Rushing

D. Rushing

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

V. Mederos

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat LAD 7-6. Ohtani's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

LAA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 6th Inning · 5-5
+30pp→ 61% WP

Moore · doubled to right.

LADTop 9th Inning · 6-5
+31pp→ 86% WP

Ohtani · homered to right (404 feet).

LAABottom 10th Inning · 6-6
+23pp→ 92% WP

Moore · reached on bunt single to catcher, Ward to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
LAD12002000106
LAA30110000117

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · LAA won 4

1
3

Inn 1

Hern 1

Ward 1

2
0

Inn 2

Rushing 2

0
1

Inn 3

Ward 1

0
1

Inn 4

Teodosio 1

2
0

Inn 5

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Ohtani 1

Schanuel 1

0
1

Inn 10

Adell 1

LAD
LAA

Play-by-play · 663 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 7

  2. B10

    Adell singled to left, Ward scored, Moore to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 7

    +8pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 7

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  9. B10

    Ben Casparius pitches to Jo Adell

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 7

  10. B10

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  11. B10

    Moore reached on bunt single to catcher, Ward to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

    +23pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  13. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  14. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  15. B10

    Ben Casparius pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  16. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  17. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  18. T10

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  19. T10

    Call popped out to first.

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  20. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  21. T10

    Connor Brogdon pitches to Alex Call

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  22. T10

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  23. T10

    Pages flied out to center, Dean to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

    +9pp

  24. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  25. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  26. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  27. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  28. T10

    Connor Brogdon pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  29. T10

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

  30. T10

    Muncy struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·LAA 6

    +12pp

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

7

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

17

TB

15

2

HR

1

5

BB

6

9

K

9

19

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    46.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 98
    28
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    135
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    195
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    194
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    213
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs