MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7SD

57-49

STL

54-53

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

26,080 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
51.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
5.7± 2.2low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.7low
Griffin CanningSD
4.8± 2.4low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.4± 1.0high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Ty FranceSD
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.9± 1.9high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 0.9high
Ty FranceSD
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 2.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 9 · STL 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	2	0	1	4	0	0	1	1	0	9
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	2-4	4	3	2	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.483
L. Arraez★2B	3-5	5	2	3	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
M. Machado★3B	4-5	5	0	4	3	0	0	0
SPRINT24.32
J. Merrill★CF	1-5	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT28.688
X. Bogaerts★SS	1-5	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT27.148
G. Sheets★1B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth★2B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. Iglesias★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. Diaz★C	0-4	4	1	0	1	0	0	3
B. JohnsonRF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0

Team	16-41	41	9	16	8	1	3	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

3-5

4-5

1-5

1-5

1-4

2-4

1-4

0-4

1-1

Team

16-41

	Pitching
S. Kolek★SP	6.0	4	2	2	3	2	1
D. MorganRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
W. PeraltaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. MarinaccioRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	0
Team	9.0	6	2	2	4	5	1

Pitching

Player

6.0

0.2

0.2

1.2

Team

9.0

	Batting
B. Donovan★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Herrera★DH	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
SPRINT25.513
W. Contreras★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Winn★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
J. Walker★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT28.891
P. Pages★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott II★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.798
Y. PozoC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaggeseLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	6-32	32	2	6	2	1	4	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI