MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6ATH

ATH

46-62

HOU

60-46

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

36,976 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
62.4%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.1%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.3± 3.2low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

HOU

.735

OPS

.715

.733

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.321

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

4.62

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.90

1.42

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 7 · HOU 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	7
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. AndujarDH	.291	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.235	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.272	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.252	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. WynnsC	.217	4	2	2	0	0	0	2
G. Urshela3B	.232	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
C. ThomasRF	.136	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.231	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.234	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.357	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		37	7	11	7	2	0	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.291

.235

.272

.252

.217

.232

.136

.231

.234

.255

.357

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J.T. GinnSP	6.0	3	0	0	0	4	77
J. PerkinsRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	35
B. BowdenRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	5	131

Player

J.T. GinnSP

6.0

J. PerkinsRP

2.0

B. BowdenRP

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TrammellCF	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. Altuve2B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.236	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Singleton1B	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HummelLF	.150	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.258	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.254	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	7	1	0	1	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. GordonSP	5.0	6	4	4	0	6	99
L. ContrerasRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
K. OrtRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
S. OkertRP	1.0	5	3	3	0	1	29
Team	9.0	11	7	7	0	9	161

Team

ATH

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.