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FINAL+6PIT
ARI

ARI

51-55

0
6
PIT

PIT

44-62

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
20,779 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

ARI 0 · PIT 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000000000
PIT012001026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    114
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    231
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    264
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    291
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    269
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 94
    300
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI51-55
0
6
PIT44-62
ARI51-55·PIT44-62
ARI

ARI

51-55

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT29.496
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33000002
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT26.326
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.698
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-44000003
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000001
T. EnglishT. English★OF
1-33010001
Team5-32320500113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0544150
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.0000100
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0422000
Team8.0966250
PIT

PIT

44-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-44000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44210000
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33211000
SPRINT27.969
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-33122010
SPRINT28.483
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
2-44121002
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44012001
SPRINT26.941
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-44010000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000012
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33010000
Team9-3232696025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.0300190
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0000000
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
2.0200040
Team9.05001130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      31%·82.1 mph·28% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.3 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·98.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.8 mph·64% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.3 mph·71% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      7%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      7%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    40 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      30%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      38%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Jul 25ARIARI1@PITPIT0
Jul 26ARIARI0@PITPIT2
Jul 27ARIARI0@PITPIT6today

Season series

PIT wins series 4-2

May 27PITPIT0@ARIARI5
May 28PITPIT9@ARIARI6
May 28PITPIT10@ARIARI1
Jul 25ARIARI1@PITPIT0
Jul 26ARIARI0@PITPIT2
Jul 27ARIARI0@PITPIT6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

ARIARI
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat ARI 6-0.

Win probability

PIT vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 44% WP

McCarthy · tripled to center.

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 77% WP

Pham · singled to center, Cruz scored.

PITBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 82% WP

Reynolds · doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored, Reynolds to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000000000
PIT01200102—6

Period scoring

ARI won 0 · PIT won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Pham 1

0
2

Inn 3

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Hayes 2

0

Inn 9

ARI
PIT

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  2. T9

    McCann struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  10. T9

    Del Castillo to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  11. T9

    Del Castillo to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  13. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to James McCann

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  14. T9

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  15. T9

    McCarthy struck out looking.

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  20. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Jake McCarthy

    · ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  21. T9

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  22. T9

    Del Castillo singled to center.

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  28. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  29. T9

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

  30. T9

    Suárez struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 0·PIT 6

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

0

HR

0

1

BB

2

13

K

5

15

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.