Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

SEA

6-27

PregameSat, 8:30 PM EDTNBA TV

POR

12-19

ATS/POR -1.5O/U/181.5ML/POR-118

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

3-7

POR -1.4 vs SEA -7.4 margin

POR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

POR 2 rest vs SEA 3

SEA has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+107.5

POR Elo vs SEA Elo

POR owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing SEA uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 88/8 - 8:30 PM EDTSeriesPOR leads series 2-0VegasPOR -1.5

Preview · WNBA

eattle Storm visit Portland Fire Saturday at 8/8 - 8:30 PM EDT.

Vegas opened POR as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 181.5. POR's moneyline implies a 54% break-even, SEA the inverse.

For bettors: the POR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 181.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

POR

Home

FG %

Season series

POR leads series 2-0

Jun 18

SEA89@

POR94

Jul 5

POR77@

SEA72

Aug 9

SEA@

PORtoday

Aug 15

POR@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

181.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA-10250%

POR-11854%

7· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -1.5↗SpreadBet POR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

181.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

SEA @ POR

8/8 - 8:30 PM EDT

StorylineSEA dropped 10 straight.

Rest going in

SEA +1 day

SEALong rest

3 days

last game Aug 5

PORStandard

2 days

last game Aug 6

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

POR -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

181.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

POR -118

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

SEAmetricPOR

6-27

Record

12-19

Conf rank

-5.6

Pt diff

-5.3

L10

Streak

0-10

Last 10

3-7

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

POR -1.5·O/U 181.5·SEA -102/POR -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

POR vs SEA.

POR is 3-7 recently; SEA is 0-10.

74.2%

model · POR win prob

Recent form

POR3–7-1.4
SEA0–10-7.4

Situational

POR2d rest
SEA3d rest
-1.0d differential

SEA has 1 more rest day. POR has 0 straight road games; SEA has 3.

Model angle

+22.6ppon POR

POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Venue split+1.2pp
▲Travel burden+0.8pp

Players to watch

Dominique MalongaSEA
17.3points · ±6.8
Dominique Malonga · 17.3 pts · last-10 18 vs season 16.2.
Carla LeitePOR
16.5points · ±5.2
Carla Leite · 16.5 pts · last-10 17 vs season 15.6.
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.4points · ±10.0
Natisha Hiedeman · 16.4 pts · last-10 17.1 vs season 15.5.

Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2

POR is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-17SEA @ POR89–94
2026-07-04POR @ SEA77–72

Line move

open -125→-118toward SEA

The market has moved 1.4pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.9%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
73.5%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
76.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.8%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like POR.

POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+22.6

pp edge · POR

-1.51

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on POR

75.2%

±8.7pp band

5u large — +21.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+23.5pp

+0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

45.9%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.85

+21.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 22.6pp · POR over SEA

▲
Model confidence90% conf
POR clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
POR's venue form is 24.2pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.2pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
SEA is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.8pp
▼
Line steam70% conf
The market moved 1.5pp away from POR since open.
-0.6pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
SEA has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

POR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Dominique MalongaSEA
17.3± 6.8high
Carla LeitePOR
16.5± 5.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.4± 10.0high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
10.1± 2.8high
Awa FamSEA
7.2± 2.2high
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.4± 3.3high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
7.2± 3.1high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.0± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
4.2± 1.4high

Blocks

Dominique MalongaSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.0± 0.7high
Awa FamSEA
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.9± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.9high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Seattle Storm at Portland Fire

POR vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like POR.

POR vs SEA.