Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CHI?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

11-17

PregameWed, 9:00 PM EDTUSA Net, CNBC

CHI

11-19

ATS/CHI -2.5O/U/189.5ML/CHI-135

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

5-5

CHI +0.9 vs LA -3.2 margin

CHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

CHI 2 rest vs LA 3

LA has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+99.2

CHI Elo vs LA Elo

LA owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 58/5 - 9:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasCHI -2.5

Preview · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks visit Chicago Sky Wednesday at 8/5 - 9:00 PM EDT. CHI is 4-3 in their last 7.

Vegas opened CHI as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 189.5. CHI's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, LA the inverse.

For bettors: the CHI side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 189.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 11

CHI87@

LA102

Jul 17

LA82@

CHI96

Aug 6

LA@

CHItoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

189.5

High-scoring · +24.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

LA+11447%

CHI-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -2.5↗SpreadBet CHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

189.5

+2.0 since open

Scouting report

LA @ CHI

8/5 - 9:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

LA +1 day

LALong rest

3 days

last game Aug 2

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

CHI -2.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

189.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

CHI -135

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LAmetricCHI

11-17

Record

11-19

Conf rank

-4.7

Pt diff

-1.9

Streak

3-7

Last 10

5-5

70.4

Sched ahead

71.2

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

CHI -2.5·O/U 189.5·LA +114/CHI -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CHI vs LA.

CHI is 5-5 recently; LA is 3-7.

32.7%

model · CHI win prob

Recent form

CHI5–5+0.9
LA3–7-3.2

Situational

CHI2d rest
LA3d rest
-1.0d differential

LA has 1 more rest day. CHI has 0 straight road games; LA has 1.

Model angle

+22.4ppon LA

LA's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-1.5pp
▲Line steam+0.5pp

Players to watch

Nneka OgwumikeLA
18.5points · ±4.6
Nneka Ogwumike · 18.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 17.2.
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.
Dearica HambyLA
15.7points · ±4.1
Dearica Hamby · 15.7 pts · last-10 16.4 vs season 14.6.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

CHI is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-25LA @ CHI86–97
2025-06-29CHI @ LA92–85
2026-07-10CHI @ LA87–102
2026-07-17LA @ CHI82–96

Line move

open -142→-135toward LA

The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.3%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
45.8%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
44.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.7%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LA.

LA's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+22.4

pp edge · LA

+1.21

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on LA

78.5%

±9.8pp band

5u large — +31.8pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+33.6pp

+11.2pp post-cal

Kelly

59.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

2.14

+31.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 22.4pp · LA over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
LA clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
CHI's venue form trims LA's edge by 30pp.
-1.5pp
▲
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp toward LA since open.
+0.5pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
LA has 3 days rest; CHI has 2.
+0.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CHI has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CHI?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.4pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+114DraftKings

edge +22.4pp · implied 44.9%

CHI

no live price

Book	LA	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+114★	-135	+22.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Nneka OgwumikeLA
18.5± 4.6high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.2± 3.1high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.5± 3.7high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Erica WheelerLA
6.1± 2.2high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.4± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.5± 0.8high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.1high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky

CHI vs LA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LA.

Where to bet this game.

CHI vs LA.