May 22, 26sim 96
369
20(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
WSH
77Live0.0 - 4th
ATL
109Updated 8:16 PM ET
0.0 - 4TH+32ATL
WSH
4-4
77109
ATL
6-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 389 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Angel ReeseATL · FORB%.20699+
Jordin CanadaATL · GAST/TO2.790
Allisha GrayATL · GUSG%.25682
Naz HillmonATL · FORB%.06576
Rhyne HowardATL · GAST/TO2.176
Updated 0s ago
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
17.0Game score
24
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
ATL · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
21.7Game score
18
Pts
17
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream · live
WNBA · Box score
0.0 - 4th
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -17 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 24 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 7-10 | -20 | 3 | 3 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-2 | — | -29 | 5 | 4 | |
| 29 | 18 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 6-7 | -24 | 2 | 6 | |
| 23 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | -9 | 9 | 1 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-4 | — | 2-2 | -6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | -12 | 0 | 1 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | -29 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 77 | 26-58 | 5-16 | 20-27 | 26 | 17 | ||
| DNP: L. Olsen | ||||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-4 | — | +24 | 6 | 1 | |
| 25 | 18 | 4-9 | — | 10-10 | +25 | 17 | 0 | |
| 25 | 15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 12-15 | +14 | 1 | 5 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | +19 | 2 | 5 | |
| 21 | 19 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 3-3 | +18 | 0 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 18 | 11 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +9 | 5 | 0 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | +13 | 1 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | +7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 1-3 | — | 0-3 | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +27 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 109 | 32-66 | 13-25 | 32-41 | 42 | 21 | ||
| DNP: B. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
48
17
Ast
21
Season series
Jun 6WSH@ATLtoday
WSH@ATLtodayJul 2ATL@WSHupcoming
ATL@WSHupcomingAug 7ATL@WSHupcoming
ATL@WSHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
160.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
WSH+33023%ATL-42581%60· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
160.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
0.0 - 4thGame flowWSH ↔ ATL
Just happened
Lauren Betts · misses shot
WSHK. Iriafen
FLeading · 0.0 - 4th · 27 min
24 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 36 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
ATLA. Reese
FLeading · 0.0 - 4th · 25 min
18 PTS · 17 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 29 PTS · 27 REB · 0 AST
How it's going
ATL lead WSH 109-77 (0.0 - 4th). A. Reese led with 18 PTS, 17 REB, 0 AST. ATL have outscored the other side 32-18 in the 3rd quarter.
Win probability
ATL vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 12 REB · 14 AST
GS 38
Bench(6)
24 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
GS 9
ATLstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 73
Bench(6)
40 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 31
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 20 | 14 | 18 | 25 | 77 |
| ATL | 28 | 18 | 32 | 31 | 109 |
Period scoring
WSH won 0 · ATL won 4
20
28
Q1
Iriafen 9
Gray 10
14
18
Q2
Iriafen 4
Borlase 5
18
32
Q3
Citron 8
Reese 8
25
31
Q4
McMahon 5
Kone 7
WSH
ATL
Shooting comparison
WSH
ATL
45%
26-58
FG
48%
32-66
31%
5-16
3PT
52%
13-25
74%
20-27
FT
78%
32-41
Play-by-play · 458 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·1.5
Lauren Betts misses shot
WSH 77·ATL 109
- Q4·20.6
Angela Dugalic defensive rebound
WSH 77·ATL 109
- Q4·23.2
Sika Kone misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 77·ATL 109
- Q4·23.2
Rori Harmon shooting foul
WSH 77·ATL 109
- Q4·23.2
Sika Kone makes two point shot
WSH 77·ATL 109
- Q4·23.2
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 77·ATL 107
- Q4·24.3
Aaliyah Nye misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 77·ATL 107
- Q4·41.0
Angela Dugalic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cassandre Prosper assists)
·
WSH 77·ATL 107
- Q4·51.1
shot clock turnover
WSH 74·ATL 107
- Q4·51.1
Dream offensive team rebound
WSH 74·ATL 107
- Q4·52.2
Madina Okot misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 74·ATL 107
- Q4·1:16
Lauren Betts makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 74·ATL 107
- Q4·1:16
Lauren Betts makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 73·ATL 107
- Q4·1:16
Indya Nivar personal foul
WSH 72·ATL 107
- Q4·1:33
Aaliyah Nye makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sika Kone assists)
·
WSH 72·ATL 107
- Q4·1:33
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:38
Isobel Borlase misses driving layup
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:49
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Indya Nivar misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Rori Harmon enters the game for Alicia Florez Getino
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Lauren Betts enters the game for Shakira Austin
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Dream Full timeout
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Sonia Citron shooting foul
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:53
Indya Nivar makes running layup
WSH 72·ATL 104
- Q4·1:58
Shakira Austin lost ball turnover (Indya Nivar steals)
·
WSH 72·ATL 102
- Q4·2:10
Sika Kone makes 23-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
WSH 72·ATL 102
- Q4·2:30
Alicia Florez Getino makes driving layup
WSH 72·ATL 99
- Q4·2:48
Madina Okot makes two point shot
WSH 70·ATL 99
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
26-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-66
45
FG %
48
5-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-25
20-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
32-41
17
Assists
21
17
Turnovers
11
Betting line
ATL -8.5·O/U 160.5·WSH +330/ATL -425
Live · model lean0.0 - 4thPolls every 30s
85.2%
ATL wins · current
Pre-game: 71.5% ATL
WSH 77 · 109 ATL
ATL +32
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4away leadsATL leads
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
71.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
80.4%
P(ATL win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
80.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.19 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+6.2pp
best edge · WSH · DraftKings
WSH
★ best+330DraftKings
edge +6.2pp · implied 22.3%
ATL
no live price
| Book | WSH | ATL | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +330★ | -425 | +6.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player props
Player projections
ATL vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL18.0± 10.1low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 5.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL10.3± 4.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.8± 5.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.6± 4.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.2± 4.8low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.4± 2.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.2± 3.2low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.5low
- Angel ReeseATL0.9± 1.3low
- Kiki IriafenWSH0.6± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.4± 2.3low
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 3.0low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.3± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
ATL
45.5%
FG%
◀
44.4
42.9%
28.9%
3PT %
32.9
▶31.9%
84.3
PPG
◀
84.8
83.2
18.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.4
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.2