Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+32ATL

WSH

4-5

77109

ATL

7-3

WNBASat, Jun 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -8.5

WSH · top performer

Kiki Iriafen

F · #44

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Angel Reese

F · #5

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 3:44

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	21	4	1-3	0-2	2-2	-17	0	0
K. IriafenF · #44	27	24	8-15	1-3	7-10	-20	3	3
S. AustinC · #0	22	7	3-9	1-2	—	-29	5	4
S. CitronG · #22	29	18	5-10	2-4	6-7	-24	2	6
G. AmooreG · #8	23	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	2	1
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	14	5	2-3	1-1	—	-9	9	1
L. BettsC · #51	16	6	2-4	—	2-2	-6	1	1
R. HarmonG · #3	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. McMahonG · #23	15	7	2-4	0-1	3-4	-5	2	0
C. ProsperG · #18	11	4	2-2	—	—	-12	0	1
A. FlorezG · #2	20	2	1-7	0-2	0-2	-29	2	0
Team		77	26-58	5-16	20-27		26	17
DNP: L. Olsen

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	25	6	2-6	2-4	—	+24	6	1
A. ReeseF · #5	25	18	4-9	—	10-10	+25	17	0
A. GrayG · #15	25	15	1-4	1-2	12-15	+14	1	5
J. CanadaG · #3	25	11	4-6	1-1	2-3	+19	2	5
R. HowardG · #10	21	19	6-11	4-7	3-3	+18	0	3
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	12	9	3-6	1-3	2-3	+6	6	2
M. OkotC · #11	18	11	5-9	0-1	1-2	+9	5	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	6	2-4	2-3	—	+13	1	3
A. NyeG · #32	5	3	1-3	1-2	—	+7	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	8	2	1-3	—	0-3	-2	2	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	23	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	+27	2	2
Team		109	32-66	13-25	32-41		42	21
DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

26-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-66

FG %

5-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-25

20-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-41

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 6

WSH77@

ATL109today

Jul 2

ATL76@

WSH81

Aug 7

ATL@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+33023%

ATL-42581%

60· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

160.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 109-77. A. Reese led with 18 PTS, 17 REB, 0 AST. ATL outscored the other side 32-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 12 REB · 14 AST

GS 38

Bench(6)

24 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

GS 9

ATLstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 73

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	20	14	18	25	77
ATL	28	18	32	31	109

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · ATL won 4

Iriafen 9

Gray 10

Iriafen 4

Borlase 5

Citron 8

Reese 8

McMahon 5

Kone 7

WSH

ATL

Shooting comparison

WSH

ATL

45%

26-58

48%

32-66

31%

5-16

3PT

52%

13-25

74%

20-27

78%

32-41

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·0.9
Indya Nivar defensive rebound
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·1.9
Lauren Betts misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·20.6
Angela Dugalic defensive rebound
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·23.2
Sika Kone misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·23.2
Rori Harmon shooting foul
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·23.2
Sika Kone makes two point shot
WSH 77·ATL 109
Q4·23.6
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 77·ATL 107
Q4·24.3
Aaliyah Nye misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 77·ATL 107
Q4·41.0
Angela Dugalic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cassandre Prosper assists)
·
WSH 77·ATL 107
Q4·51.1
shot clock turnover
WSH 74·ATL 107
Q4·51.1
Dream offensive team rebound
WSH 74·ATL 107
Q4·52.2
Madina Okot misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 74·ATL 107
Q4·1:16
Lauren Betts makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 74·ATL 107
Q4·1:16
Lauren Betts makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 73·ATL 107
Q4·1:16
Indya Nivar personal foul
WSH 72·ATL 107
Q4·1:33
Aaliyah Nye makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sika Kone assists)
·
WSH 72·ATL 107
Q4·1:33
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:38
Isobel Borlase misses driving layup
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:49
Sika Kone offensive rebound
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Indya Nivar misses free throw 1 of 1
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Rori Harmon enters the game for Alicia Florez Getino
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Lauren Betts enters the game for Shakira Austin
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Dream Full timeout
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Sonia Citron shooting foul
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:53
Indya Nivar makes running layup
WSH 72·ATL 104
Q4·1:58
Shakira Austin lost ball turnover (Indya Nivar steals)
·
WSH 72·ATL 102

Betting line

ATL -8.5·O/U 160.5·WSH +330/ATL -425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Washington Mystics, 109–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -8.5 cashed (won by 32). Total cleared the 160.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

ATL

eFG%

shooting

49.1%

58.3%

TOV%

ball control

19.6%

11.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

23.5%

47.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

34.5%

48.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

84.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
83.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
86.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
85.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-500

Close price

-500

Open no-vig

80.0%

Close no-vig

80.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.5pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ATL

★ best

-425DraftKings

edge +4.5pp · implied 77.7%

Book	WSH	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+330	-425★	+4.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Allisha GrayATL
19.8± 3.9high
Shakira AustinWSH
18.1± 5.5high
Sonia CitronWSH
15.9± 8.5high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.2high
Shakira AustinWSH
9.6± 3.5high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.9± 3.6high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.9± 2.0high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.7± 1.3high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.3± 1.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
0.9± 1.1high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.3high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.4± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop