Jun 4, 26sim 99
12968984
8(H)87
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5LV
GS
6-5
7984
LV
7-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 388 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Golden State Valkyries, 84–79.
LV -2.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 167.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #1
21.4Game score
27
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
23.6Game score
28
Pts
14
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 10 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 4-4 | +3 | 9 | 1 | |
| 28 | 27 | 10-17 | 3-7 | 4-5 | -13 | 6 | 1 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -11 | 4 | 1 | |
| 34 | 15 | 5-16 | 1-8 | 4-6 | -4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 28 | 11 | 4-12 | 3-8 | — | -2 | 3 | 2 | |
| -- | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | +1 | 3 | 3 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-1 | — | +4 | 6 | 3 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 28-72 | 11-35 | 12-17 | 38 | 14 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, N. Mwenentanda, J. Jocyte | ||||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 19 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | — | -11 | 0 | 4 | |
| 29 | 6 | 2-6 | — | 2-6 | +17 | 6 | 1 | |
| 35 | 28 | 9-17 | 2-4 | 8-8 | +12 | 14 | 3 | |
| 36 | 12 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 2-3 | +3 | 6 | 6 | |
| 36 | 27 | 8-15 | 6-8 | 5-5 | +13 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | +2 | 5 | 3 | |
| Team | 84 | 27-63 | 13-30 | 17-22 | 36 | 22 | ||
| DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Barker | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
43
14
Ast
22
Season series
LV leads series 2-0
May 31LV91@GS81
LV91@GS81Jun 6GS79@LV84today
GS79@LV84todayJun 21GS@LVupcoming
GS@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+13043%LV-15561%25· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
-2.0 since open
Total
167.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 40pp · 4th Quarter · 9.9
GSG. Williams
FGame leader · 28 min
27 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 35 min
28 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LV beat GS 84-79. A. Wilson paced them with 28 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. Veronica Burton's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 25 REB · 6 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST
GS 10
LVstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST
GS 62
Bench(3)
5 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GS 1
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLV4th Quarter · 24.2 · 78-80
+23pp→ 71% WP
Jackie Young · makes 25-foot three pointer
GS4th Quarter · 9.9 · 78-80
+21pp→ 49% WP
Jackie Young · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 9.9 · 79-80
+40pp→ 52% WP
Veronica Burton · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 13 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 79 |
| LV | 20 | 18 | 20 | 26 | 84 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · LV won 2
13
20
Q1
Williams 5
Wilson 14
22
18
Q2
Thornton 8
Wilson 6
20
20
Q3
Williams 9
Young 8
24
26
Q4
Williams 8
Young 14
GS
LV
Shooting comparison
GS
LV
39%
28-72
FG
43%
27-63
31%
11-35
3PT
43%
13-30
71%
12-17
FT
77%
17-22
Play-by-play · 388 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 79·LV 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 79·LV 84
- Q4·1.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 79·LV 84
- Q4·1.0
Veronica Burton misses 55-foot three point jumper
GS 79·LV 84
- Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·LV 84
- Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·LV 83
- Q4·2.4
Veronica Burton personal foul
GS 79·LV 82
+0.7pp
- Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
GS 79·LV 82
+2pp
- Q4·5.4
Janelle Salaun misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 82
+5pp
- Q4·7.2
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
GS 79·LV 82
- Q4·7.2
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 79·LV 82
- Q4·7.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·LV 82
−4pp
- Q4·7.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·LV 81
+2pp
- Q4·7.2
Kayla Thornton personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
+16pp
- Q4·8.3
Aces timeout
GS 79·LV 80
- Q4·8.3
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
GS 79·LV 80
+4pp
- Q4·9.9
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
+26pp
- Q4·9.9
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
−40pp
- Q4·9.9
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Stephanie Talbot
·
GS 78·LV 80
- Q4·9.9
Aces Full timeout
GS 78·LV 80
- Q4·9.9
(00:09.9) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Aces] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
+36pp
- Q4·9.9
Jackie Young shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
−22pp
- Q4·19.1
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
GS 78·LV 80
- Q4·19.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 78·LV 80
+2pp
- Q4·24.2
Jackie Young makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
+23pp
- Q4·38.3
Veronica Burton makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 77
−7pp
- Q4·52.3
A'ja Wilson makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot (Jackie Young assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 76·LV 77
+6pp
- Q4·1:10
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
GS 76·LV 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:14
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 76·LV 75
+8pp
- Q4·1:15
Veronica Burton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 76·LV 75
−8pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LV
Home
28-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-63
39
FG %
43
11-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-30
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-22
14
Assists
22
9
Turnovers
11
Betting line
LV -2.5·O/U 167.5·GS +130/LV -155
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- A'ja WilsonLV · CUSG%.32899+
Veronica BurtonGS · GAST/TO3.999
Jackie YoungLV · GAST/TO3.494
Chelsea GrayLV · GAST/TO2.284
Kayla ThorntonGS · FORB%.06982
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.4%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
71.7%
P(LV win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
71.5%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.6%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.48 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-4.79
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-192
Close price
-155
Open no-vig
63.1%
Close no-vig
58.3%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+9.1pp
best edge · LV · DraftKings
GS
no live price
LV
★ best-125DraftKings
edge +9.1pp · implied 52.0%
| Book | GS | LV | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -105 | -125★ | +9.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
LV vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV24.8± 10.5low
- Chennedy CarterLV16.3± 10.0low
- Gabby WilliamsGS15.0± 9.4low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.2± 6.9low
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.8± 3.4low
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.2± 3.3low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.9± 2.7low
- Jackie YoungLV6.1± 3.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.4± 4.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.3± 2.2low
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.5low
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.9± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.0low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.1± 1.3low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.1± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LV
40.8%
FG%
44.4
▶49.0%
38.2%
3PT %
◀
32.9
34.8%
86.5
PPG
84.8
▶89.7
19.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.8
9.7
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
13.3