Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LV

6-5

7984

7-3

WNBASat, Jun 6FinalSeriesLV wins series 3-0VegasLV -2.5

GS · top performer

Gabby Williams

F · #1

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 40pp · 4th Quarter · 9.9

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	35	10	2-7	2-5	4-4	+3	9	1
G. WilliamsF · #1	28	27	10-17	3-7	4-5	-13	6	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	16	4	2-5	0-2	—	-2	1	0
K. StokesC · #41	17	2	1-2	0-1	—	-11	4	1
V. BurtonG · #22	34	15	5-16	1-8	4-6	-4	5	3
Bench
J. SalaunF · #13	28	11	4-12	3-8	—	-2	3	2
I. RupertC · #12	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. HayesG · #15	16	5	2-7	1-3	0-2	+1	3	3
K. CharlesG · #6	20	5	2-5	1-1	—	+4	6	3
K. ChenG · #2	6	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
Team		79	28-72	11-35	12-17		38	14
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Mwenentanda, J. Jocyte

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	19	6	2-7	2-6	—	-11	0	4
N. SmithF · #3	29	6	2-6	—	2-6	+17	6	1
A. WilsonC · #22	35	28	9-17	2-4	8-8	+12	14	3
C. GrayG · #12	36	12	4-10	2-7	2-3	+3	6	6
J. YoungG · #0	36	27	8-15	6-8	5-5	+13	5	5
Bench
B. TurnerF · #21	9	0	0-1	—	—	-5	0	0
K. BellF · #1	7	0	0-3	0-2	—	-6	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	28	5	2-4	1-3	—	+2	5	3
Team		84	27-63	13-30	17-22		36	22
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, J. Barker

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

28-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-63

FG %

11-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-30

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV wins series 3-0

May 31

LV91@

GS81

Jun 6

GS79@

LV84today

Jun 21

GS73@

LV92

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+13043%

LV-15561%

25· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -2.5↗SpreadBet LV -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

-2.0 since open

Total

167.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat GS 84-79. A. Wilson paced them with 28 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. Veronica Burton's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 25 REB · 6 AST

GS 41

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 10

LVstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

5 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

GS 1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 24.2 · 78-80

+23pp→ 71% WP

Jackie Young · makes 25-foot three pointer

GS4th Quarter · 9.9 · 78-80

+21pp→ 49% WP

Jackie Young · shooting foul

GS4th Quarter · 9.9 · 79-80

+40pp→ 52% WP

Veronica Burton · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	13	22	20	24	79
LV	20	18	20	26	84

Period scoring

GS won 1 · LV won 2

Williams 5

Wilson 14

Thornton 8

Wilson 6

Williams 9

Young 8

Williams 8

Young 14

Shooting comparison

39%

28-72

43%

27-63

31%

11-35

3PT

43%

13-30

71%

12-17

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 388 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 79·LV 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 79·LV 84
Q4·1.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 79·LV 84
Q4·1.0
Veronica Burton misses 55-foot three point jumper
GS 79·LV 84
Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·LV 84
Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·LV 83
Q4·2.4
Veronica Burton personal foul
GS 79·LV 82
+0.7pp
Q4·2.4
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
GS 79·LV 82
+2pp
Q4·5.4
Janelle Salaun misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 82
+5pp
Q4·7.2
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
GS 79·LV 82
Q4·7.2
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 79·LV 82
Q4·7.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·LV 82
−4pp
Q4·7.2
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·LV 81
+2pp
Q4·7.2
Kayla Thornton personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
+16pp
Q4·8.3
Aces timeout
GS 79·LV 80
Q4·8.3
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
GS 79·LV 80
+4pp
Q4·9.9
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
+26pp
Q4·9.9
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 79·LV 80
−40pp
Q4·9.9
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Stephanie Talbot
·
GS 78·LV 80
Q4·9.9
Aces Full timeout
GS 78·LV 80
Q4·9.9
(00:09.9) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Aces] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
+36pp
Q4·9.9
Jackie Young shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
−22pp
Q4·19.1
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
GS 78·LV 80
Q4·19.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 78·LV 80
+2pp
Q4·24.2
Jackie Young makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 80
+23pp
Q4·38.3
Veronica Burton makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 78·LV 77
−7pp
Q4·52.3
A'ja Wilson makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot (Jackie Young assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 76·LV 77
+6pp
Q4·1:10
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
GS 76·LV 75
+3pp
Q4·1:14
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 76·LV 75
+8pp
Q4·1:15
Veronica Burton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 76·LV 75
−8pp

Betting line

LV -2.5·O/U 167.5·GS +130/LV -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Golden State Valkyries, 84–79.

LV -2.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 167.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

eFG%

shooting

46.5%

53.2%

TOV%

ball control

10.2%

13.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

17.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.7%

27.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.1%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
71.8%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
74.0%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.2%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-192

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.5pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

no live price

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +16.5pp · implied 52.0%

Book	GS	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-125★	+16.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.1high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
NaLyssa SmithLV
5.2± 2.8high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.6± 1.0high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop