WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+20MIN

SEA

3-9

6888

MIN

9-2

WNBASat, Jun 6FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -13.5

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Seattle Storm, 88–68. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -13.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 162.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

12.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Natasha Howard

F · #1

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	18	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	-15	3	2
S. DolsonC · #31	20	6	2-3	2-3	—	-10	4	1
A. FamC · #11	30	5	2-6	1-4	—	-15	4	4
N. HiedemanG · #2	26	14	4-10	3-9	3-3	-12	4	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	26	10	4-15	2-7	—	-4	6	2
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	18	0	0-4	0-2	—	-5	2	0
M. HolmesF · #54	14	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-6	4	2
T. ThierryF · #3	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
D. MalongaC · #14	14	7	3-8	0-2	1-2	-7	2	0
Z. CookeG · #7	9	4	1-4	1-2	1-2	-16	2	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	20	14	4-7	1-3	5-5	-6	4	0
T. MairG · #22	2	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	0	0
Team		68	22-63	11-36	13-16		35	16
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, L. Brown

DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, L. Brown

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	30	27	12-16	0-1	3-4	+22	5	1
N. CoffeyF · #12	27	6	2-6	2-6	—	+9	8	5
K. McBrideG · #21	23	11	3-12	2-8	3-3	+18	2	3
C. WilliamsG · #10	27	11	5-13	1-3	—	+17	5	7
O. MilesG · #5	33	19	9-14	1-3	0-1	+19	6	6
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	14	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	3	2
A. KosuF · #7	17	4	2-4	—	—	+3	1	1
T. McCowanC · #15	7	4	2-3	—	—	+2	3	1
M. CaldwellG · #3	22	6	2-8	2-5	—	+8	3	1
Team		88	37-77	8-27	6-8		36	27
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Jun 6

SEA68@

MIN88today

Jul 21

MIN@

SEAupcoming

Jul 22

MIN@

SEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -13.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+65013%

MIN-100091%

100· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -13.5↗SpreadBet MIN -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

+1.0 since open

Total

162.5

+1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 4:11

SEA

N. Hiedeman

Game leader · 26 min

14 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

MIN

N. Howard

Game leader · 30 min

27 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

MIN beat SEA 88-68. N. Howard paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-10 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 26

Bench(7)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 13

MINstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST

GS 72

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA1st Quarter · 4:11 · 19-9

+16pp→ 48% WP

Maya Caldwell · lost ball turnover (Flau'jae Johnson steals)

SEA1st Quarter · 1:10 · 24-12

+8pp→ 55% WP

Zia Cooke · makes 24-foot three pointer (Natisha Hiedeman assists)

MIN2nd Quarter · 9:42 · 24-16

+8pp→ 62% WP

Stefanie Dolson · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	24	19	10	15	68
MIN	16	29	26	17	88

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · MIN won 3

Johnson 8

Miles 6

Hiedeman 9

Howard 10

Melbourne 4

Howard 11

Melbourne 5

McCowan 4

SEA

MIN

Shooting comparison

SEA

MIN

35%

22-63

48%

37-77

31%

11-36

3PT

30%

8-27

81%

13-16

75%

6-8

Play-by-play · 394 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 68·MIN 88
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 68·MIN 88
Q4·11.0
Mackenzie Holmes makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SEA 68·MIN 88
Q4·11.0
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 67·MIN 88
Q4·11.0
Mackenzie Holmes misses free throw 1 of 2
·
SEA 67·MIN 88
Q4·11.0
Teaira McCowan personal foul
SEA 67·MIN 88
Q4·24.2
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes driving layup (Olivia Miles assists)
·
SEA 67·MIN 88
Q4·36.0
Katie Lou Samuelson kicked ball violation
SEA 67·MIN 86
Q4·46.7
Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 67·MIN 86
Q4·46.7
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·46.7
Zia Cooke misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·46.7
Maya Caldwell shooting foul
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·48.7
Zia Cooke offensive rebound
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·51.9
Taina Mair misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·1:05
Teaira McCowan makes layup (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu assists)
·
SEA 66·MIN 86
Q4·1:21
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:25
Taina Mair misses 9-foot floating jump shot
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Dominique Malonga
·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Awa Fam
· ·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Taina Mair enters the game for Flau'jae Johnson
·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Zia Cooke enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Storm Full timeout
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:45
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:46
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses running layup
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·1:51
Dominique Malonga bad pass turnover (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu steals)
·
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·2:03
Olivia Miles makes 13-foot floating jump shot
SEA 66·MIN 84
Q4·2:24
Dominique Malonga makes 2-foot reverse layup (Awa Fam assists)
·
SEA 66·MIN 82
Q4·2:38
shot clock turnover
SEA 64·MIN 82
Q4·2:46
Flau'jae Johnson vs. Maya Caldwell (Teaira McCowan gains possession)
· ·
SEA 64·MIN 82

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

22-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-77

FG %

11-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-27

13-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-8

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIN -13.5·O/U 162.5·SEA +650/MIN -1000

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

88.8%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
86.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
90.1%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
89.7%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

MIN

★ best

-720DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 82.8%

Book	SEA	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+450	-720★	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
18.2± 6.8medium
Natasha HowardMIN
17.8± 6.7medium
Courtney WilliamsMIN
16.5± 6.9medium

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.2± 3.6medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.8± 2.2medium

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
5.7± 2.7medium
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.0medium
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.0± 2.1medium

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.3± 1.4medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
0.9± 1.4low
Liatu KingMIN
0.8± 1.6low

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
1.9± 1.8medium
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.6± 1.1medium
Olivia MilesMIN
1.4± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

SEA

league avg

MIN

40.7%

FG%

44.3

▶

50.8%

33.1%

3PT %

33.0

▶

39.4%

76.4

PPG

85.2

▶

92.6

17.7

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

14.2

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop