Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at TOR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+19POR

POR

3-3

9980

TOR

3-4

WNBASat, May 23FinalSeriesPOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -4.5

POR · top performer

Emily Engstler

F · #21

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Kiki Rice

G · #1

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 9:28

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	28	15	5-10	4-8	1-2	+25	2	3
E. EngstlerF · #21	22	16	5-8	1-3	5-5	+15	7	0
N. PuochF · #13	24	5	2-8	1-3	—	+9	3	1
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	20	6	3-7	0-2	—	+20	5	0
C. LeiteG · #0	22	15	4-11	—	7-7	+15	3	9
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	13	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-3	2	1
GustafsonC · #17	20	14	6-8	2-3	—	-1	4	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	14	8	3-6	—	2-2	-2	3	0
H. WinterburnG · #77	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
S. BarkerG · #3	19	12	5-6	1-1	1-3	+13	3	1
T. OblakG · #7	17	3	1-4	1-1	—	+7	1	9
Team		99	35-70	11-23	18-21		33	24
DNP: K. Samuelson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	23	9	4-6	1-1	—	-12	3	0
L. JuskaiteF · #2	20	3	1-3	0-1	1-1	-5	2	1
B. SykesG · #20	34	10	3-9	0-2	4-4	-23	0	5
M. MabreyG · #3	28	19	7-15	3-8	2-3	-17	5	8
K. RiceG · #1	30	19	8-11	0-1	3-4	-17	5	3
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	23	8	3-9	1-5	1-2	-21	5	1
T. KeyF · #7	11	4	2-2	—	—	-6	2	0
N. MilicF · #31	8	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	+1	2	0
M. FasoulaC · #34	3	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	12	4	1-7	0-5	2-2	-3	2	0
L. HeldG · #12	8	3	1-2	1-1	—	+6	2	1
Team		80	30-66	6-25	14-18		29	19
DNP: I. Harrison, T. Fagbenle, J. Allemand

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

35-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-66

FG %

11-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-25

18-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 1-0

May 23

POR99@

TOR80today

Aug 7

TOR@

PORupcoming

Aug 22

POR@

TORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+17037%

TOR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

173.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat TOR 99-80. E. Engstler led with 16 PTS, 7 REB, 0 AST. POR outscored the other side 33-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 42

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 41

TORstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 15 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 7:15 · 52-46

+9pp→ 59% WP

Bridget Carleton · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)

POR3rd Quarter · 3:32 · 62-52

+8pp→ 81% WP

Megan Gustafson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Teja Oblak assists)

POR4th Quarter · 9:28 · 68-63

+10pp→ 76% WP

Kiki Rice · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	16	28	22	33	99
TOR	16	28	17	19	80

Period scoring

POR won 2 · TOR won 0

Gustafson 6

Mabrey 5

Leite 8

Mabrey 10

Engstler 9

Sykes 6

Carleton 6

Rice 4

POR

TOR

Shooting comparison

POR

TOR

50%

35-70

45%

30-66

48%

11-23

3PT

24%

6-25

86%

18-21

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 418 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 99·TOR 80
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 99·TOR 80
Q4·10.1
Maria Conde makes tip shot
POR 99·TOR 80
Q4·10.1
Maria Conde offensive rebound
POR 99·TOR 78
Q4·12.1
Kia Nurse misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 99·TOR 78
Q4·23.9
Lexi Held offensive rebound
POR 99·TOR 78
Q4·26.7
Maria Conde misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 99·TOR 78
Q4·40.6
Serah Williams makes driving layup
POR 99·TOR 78
Q4·40.6
Maria Conde bad pass turnover (Serah Williams steals)
·
POR 97·TOR 78
Q4·41.8
Maria Conde defensive rebound
POR 97·TOR 78
Q4·44.5
Nyadiew Puoch misses two point shot
POR 97·TOR 78
Q4·1:07
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 1 of 1
POR 97·TOR 78
Q4·1:07
Megan Gustafson shooting foul
POR 97·TOR 77
Q4·1:07
Laura Juskaite makes driving layup (Lexi Held assists)
·
POR 97·TOR 77
Q4·1:13
Frieda Buhner makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 97·TOR 75
Q4·1:13
Frieda Buhner makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 96·TOR 75
Q4·1:13
Holly Winterburn enters the game for Carla Leite
·
POR 95·TOR 75
Q4·1:13
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Brittney Sykes
·
POR 95·TOR 75
Q4·1:13
Kia Nurse shooting foul
POR 95·TOR 75
Q4·1:26
Lexi Held makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brittney Sykes assists)
·
POR 95·TOR 75
Q4·1:38
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Emily Engstler
·
POR 94·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Frieda Buhner enters the game for Luisa Geiselsoder
·
POR 94·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Megan Gustafson enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
POR 94·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Serah Williams enters the game for Sarah Ashlee Barker
·
POR 94·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 94·TOR 72
Q4·1:38
Lexi Held shooting foul
POR 93·TOR 72
Q4·1:51
Carla Leite defensive rebound
POR 93·TOR 72
Q4·1:54
Lexi Held misses driving floating jump shot
POR 93·TOR 72
Q4·2:08
Kia Nurse enters the game for Kiki Rice
·
POR 93·TOR 72

Betting line

TOR -4.5·O/U 173.5·POR +170/TOR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 99–80. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

POR +4.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 173.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

TOR

eFG%

shooting

57.9%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

15.0%

18.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.5%

30.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.7%

21.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
46.5%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.27

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+160

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at TOR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.1pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +27.1pp · implied 35.5%

TOR

no live price

Book	POR	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+170★	-205	+27.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Portland FireToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop