Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at LV?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LA

3-3

10195

4-2

WNBASat, May 23FinalSeriesLV leads series 2-1VegasLV -9.5

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

34.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

NaLyssa Smith

F · #3

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 29.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. HambyF · #5	36	16	6-12	1-2	3-4	0	5	4
C. BrinkF · #22	24	16	7-11	2-5	0-1	+8	8	0
E. WheelerG · #17	34	10	4-7	2-3	—	+15	7	6
K. PlumG · #10	37	38	12-17	6-7	8-8	+11	4	9
A. AtkinsG · #7	30	11	5-12	1-5	—	-5	3	3
Bench
E. CannonF · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
JihyunF · #6	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	1
R. BurrellG · #12	25	10	3-7	2-6	2-2	-9	2	2
K. MartinG · #21	6	0	—	—	—	+9	0	1
Team		101	37-67	14-29	13-15		30	26
DNP: T. Latson, C. Gray

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	16	2	1-2	0-1	—	-23	3	1
N. SmithF · #3	28	22	8-12	1-2	5-7	-1	9	1
A. WilsonC · #22	35	24	8-20	2-4	6-6	-3	15	4
C. GrayG · #12	37	12	6-14	0-5	—	-7	2	7
J. YoungG · #0	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	-9	3	2
Bench
B. TurnerF · #21	8	2	—	—	2-2	-2	1	1
J. LoydG · #24	29	10	3-13	3-11	1-2	0	0	2
C. CarterG · #23	26	23	8-13	4-4	3-4	+15	3	3
Team		95	34-76	10-29	17-21		36	21
DNP: C. Parker-Tyus, K. Bell, J. Barker

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

37-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-76

FG %

14-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 2-1

May 10

LV105@

LA78

May 24

LA101@

LV95today

Jun 3

LV79@

LA69

Sep 23

LA@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

181.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

LA+33023%

LV-42581%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -9.5↗SpreadBet LV -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

181.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat LV 101-95. K. Plum led the way with 38 points and 9 assists. LV outscored the other side 22-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST

GS 9

LVstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST

GS 54

Bench(3)

35 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV4th Quarter · 5:40 · 82-80

+15pp→ 53% WP

Ariel Atkins · shooting foul

LA4th Quarter · 1:15 · 97-94

+15pp→ 64% WP

Erica Wheeler · makes 26-foot three pointer (Kelsey Plum assists)

LA4th Quarter · 39.0 · 97-94

+14pp→ 93% WP

Chennedy Carter · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	32	14	26	29	101
LV	30	22	21	22	95

Period scoring

LA won 3 · LV won 1

Plum 11

Carter 10

Hamby 5

Smith 7

Plum 12

Wilson 11

Plum 12

Smith 7

Shooting comparison

55%

37-67

45%

34-76

48%

14-29

3PT

34%

10-29

87%

13-15

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 410 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 101·LV 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 101·LV 95
Q4·10.1
Sparks timeout
LA 101·LV 95
Q4·15.5
A'ja Wilson bad pass turnover (Kelsey Plum steals)
·
LA 101·LV 95
−2pp
Q4·19.4
Chennedy Carter enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LA 101·LV 95
Q4·19.4
Aces Full timeout
LA 101·LV 95
Q4·19.4
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 101·LV 95
+1pp
Q4·19.4
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Chennedy Carter
·
LA 100·LV 95
Q4·19.4
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 100·LV 95
Q4·19.4
Stephanie Talbot personal foul
LA 99·LV 95
−4pp
Q4·20.1
Rae Burrell defensive rebound
LA 99·LV 95
−0.8pp
Q4·23.8
Chennedy Carter misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 99·LV 95
−12pp
Q4·23.8
Chennedy Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 99·LV 95
+2pp
Q4·23.8
Kate Martin enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 99·LV 94
Q4·23.8
Dearica Hamby personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 99·LV 94
+10pp
Q4·23.8
Chennedy Carter offensive rebound
LA 99·LV 94
+2pp
Q4·26.3
Jewell Loyd misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 99·LV 94
−4pp
Q4·29.7
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 99·LV 94
+3pp
Q4·29.7
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 98·LV 94
−4pp
Q4·29.7
Aces timeout
LA 97·LV 94
Q4·29.7
Jewell Loyd shooting foul
LA 97·LV 94
−3pp
Q4·29.7
(00:29.7) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 97·LV 94
−11pp
Q4·29.7
Sparks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 97·LV 94
+16pp
Q4·39.0
Chennedy Carter personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 97·LV 94
−14pp
Q4·47.8
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
LA 97·LV 94
Q4·47.8
Sparks Full timeout
LA 97·LV 94
−1pp
Q4·55.2
Erica Wheeler defensive rebound
LA 97·LV 94
−4pp
Q4·57.6
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·LV 94
−10pp
Q4·1:15
Erica Wheeler makes 26-foot three pointer (Kelsey Plum assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 97·LV 94
−15pp
Q4·1:36
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 94·LV 94
−8pp

Betting line

LV -9.5·O/U 181.5·LA +330/LV -425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 101–95.

LA +9.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total cleared the 181.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

eFG%

shooting

65.7%

51.3%

TOV%

ball control

18.8%

14.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

14.8%

33.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

19.4%

22.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.0%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
74.4%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
73.2%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
71.4%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.59

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+300

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

24.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at LV?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.1pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+330DraftKings

edge +6.1pp · implied 22.3%

no live price

Book	LA	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+330★	-425	+6.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Dearica HambyLA
6.4± 2.5high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Brianna TurnerLV
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop