May 12, 26sim 97
2077
3(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10MIN
MIN
4-2
8575
CHI
3-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 85–75.
MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #1
24.2Game score
26
Pts
14
Reb
5
Ast
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
15.7Game score
17
Pts
7
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN4-2
8575
CHI3-3
MIN4-2CHI3-3
MIN
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 33 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +16 | |
| 25 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +7 | |
| 35 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
eFG%.47744 ORB%.02444 DRB%.12144 | ||||||||
| 33 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +12 | |
| 33 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +8 | |
| 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 85 | 54 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 19 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, A. Kosu, E. Cechova, E. Hamzova | ||||||||
CHI
3-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 23 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 32 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 32 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | |
| 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 23 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | |
| 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 20 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 75 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 11 | ||
| DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
32
19
Ast
14
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
May 17CHI86@MIN79
CHI86@MIN79May 23MIN85@CHI75today
MIN85@CHI75todayMay 29MIN79@CHI58
MIN79@CHI58Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.1h
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-12556%CHI+10549%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
-2.0 since open
Total
168.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 9:00
MINN. Howard
FGame leader · 33 min
26 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 23 min
17 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CHI 85-75. N. Howard paced them with 26 PTS, 14 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 44 REB · 17 AST
GS 60
Bench(4)
7 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 2
CHIstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
27 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 9:00 · 68-64
+12pp→ 37% WP
Olivia Miles · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 9:00 · 68-64
+10pp→ 73% WP
Natasha Cloud · misses free throw 1 of 1
MIN4th Quarter · 6:33 · 73-67
+9pp→ 82% WP
Kayla McBride · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 28 | 16 | 17 | 85 |
| CHI | 22 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 75 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · CHI won 1
24
22
Q1
Howard 8
Cardoso 7
28
16
Q2
Howard 16
Diggins 7
16
20
Q3
Miles 7
Taylor 6
17
17
Q4
McBride 8
Cardoso 6
MIN
CHI
Shooting comparison
MIN
CHI
43%
32-74
FG
32%
23-73
25%
4-16
3PT
21%
6-29
81%
17-21
FT
77%
23-30
Play-by-play · 453 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·4.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·7.1
Sydney Taylor misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·13.6
shot clock turnover
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·34.2
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·37.0
Sydney Taylor misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 85·CHI 75
- Q4·47.5
Courtney Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 85·CHI 75
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:07
Natasha Cloud bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−1pp
- Q4·1:12
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
- Q4·1:14
Courtney Williams misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:31
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
- Q4·1:33
Nia Coffey blocks Azura Stevens 's 2-foot running layup
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:35
Courtney Williams bad pass turnover (Kamilla Cardoso steals)
· ·
MIN 83·CHI 75
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:46
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
- Q4·1:48
Skylar Diggins misses driving layup
MIN 83·CHI 75
−1pp
- Q4·1:55
Sky Full timeout
MIN 83·CHI 75
- Q4·1:55
Kayla McBride makes 1-foot layup (Natasha Howard assists)
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−3pp
- Q4·2:13
Kamilla Cardoso makes running layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
MIN 81·CHI 75
+2pp
- Q4·2:18
Olivia Miles bad pass turnover (Azura Stevens steals)
·
MIN 81·CHI 73
+1pp
- Q4·2:31
Azura Stevens bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
MIN 81·CHI 73
−2pp
- Q4·2:36
Courtney Williams makes driving layup
·
MIN 81·CHI 73
−3pp
- Q4·2:45
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 73
−1pp
- Q4·2:47
Azura Stevens misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 79·CHI 73
−3pp
- Q4·2:57
Natasha Howard enters the game for Liatu King
·
MIN 79·CHI 73
- Q4·2:57
shot clock turnover
MIN 79·CHI 73
+4pp
- Q4·2:57
Liatu King offensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 73
−3pp
- Q4·2:57
Olivia Miles misses two point shot
MIN 79·CHI 73
+2pp
- Q4·3:21
Azura Stevens makes layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
MIN 79·CHI 73
+3pp
- Q4·3:33
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 71
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
32-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-73
43
FG %
32
4-16
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-29
17-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-30
19
Assists
14
19
Turnovers
11
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 168.5·MIN -125/CHI +105
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.1%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.95
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-155
Close price
-142
Open no-vig
58.3%
Close no-vig
56.3%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Player projections
CHI vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN15.6± 11.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN15.1± 3.7low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.6± 3.4low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 3.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.6low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.8low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
CHI
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.6
41.1%
34.5%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
88.4
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0