Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIN

MIN

4-2

8575

CHI

3-3

WNBASat, May 23FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasMIN -1.5

MIN · top performer

Natasha Howard

F · #1

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 9:00

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	33	26	11-15	—	4-5	+16	14	5
N. CoffeyF · #12	25	8	3-11	1-7	1-1	+7	7	0
K. McBrideG · #21	35	13	4-9	2-4	3-3	+11	6	4
C. WilliamsG · #10	33	17	8-18	0-1	1-1	+12	8	3
O. MilesG · #5	33	14	4-14	0-2	6-7	+8	9	5
Bench
L. KingF · #2	10	0	0-1	—	0-2	-6	4	0
A. DelaereF · #8	11	3	1-3	1-1	—	+6	1	0
E. HofC · #25	6	2	1-1	—	—	-4	2	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	13	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	0	3	2
Team		85	32-74	4-16	17-21		54	19
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, A. Kosu, E. Cechova, E. Hamzova

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. CardosoC · #10	23	17	4-6	—	9-9	-10	7	0
S. DigginsG · #4	32	13	4-12	0-1	5-7	-13	6	6
N. CloudG · #9	32	6	2-6	0-2	2-3	-7	2	1
J. SheldonG · #0	19	5	2-6	1-4	—	-9	1	1
G. JaquezG · #11	23	7	1-8	1-4	4-4	-5	4	0
Bench
A. StevensF · #30	16	6	3-10	0-3	—	-5	3	1
E. WilliamsC · #1	18	4	2-7	—	0-2	+1	3	1
R. BanhamG · #24	17	6	2-6	2-6	—	+1	0	3
S. TaylorG · #12	20	11	3-12	2-9	3-5	-3	2	1
Team		75	23-73	6-29	23-30		28	14
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

32-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

23-73

FG %

4-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-29

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 17

CHI86@

MIN79

May 23

MIN85@

CHI75today

May 29

MIN79@

CHI58

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-12556%

CHI+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

-2.0 since open

Total

168.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CHI 85-75. N. Howard paced them with 26 PTS, 14 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 28-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 44 REB · 17 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

7 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST

GS 2

CHIstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 32

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 9:00 · 68-64

+12pp→ 37% WP

Olivia Miles · shooting foul

MIN4th Quarter · 9:00 · 68-64

+10pp→ 73% WP

Natasha Cloud · misses free throw 1 of 1

MIN4th Quarter · 6:33 · 73-67

+9pp→ 82% WP

Kayla McBride · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	24	28	16	17	85
CHI	22	16	20	17	75

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · CHI won 1

Howard 8

Cardoso 7

Howard 16

Diggins 7

Miles 7

Taylor 6

McBride 8

Cardoso 6

MIN

CHI

Shooting comparison

MIN

CHI

43%

32-74

32%

23-73

25%

4-16

3PT

21%

6-29

81%

17-21

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·4.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·7.1
Sydney Taylor misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·13.6
shot clock turnover
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·34.2
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·37.0
Sydney Taylor misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIN 85·CHI 75
Q4·47.5
Courtney Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 85·CHI 75
−0.9pp
Q4·1:07
Natasha Cloud bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−1pp
Q4·1:12
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
Q4·1:14
Courtney Williams misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
+0.5pp
Q4·1:31
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
Q4·1:33
Nia Coffey blocks Azura Stevens 's 2-foot running layup
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−0.9pp
Q4·1:35
Courtney Williams bad pass turnover (Kamilla Cardoso steals)
· ·
MIN 83·CHI 75
+0.9pp
Q4·1:46
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 83·CHI 75
Q4·1:48
Skylar Diggins misses driving layup
MIN 83·CHI 75
−1pp
Q4·1:55
Sky Full timeout
MIN 83·CHI 75
Q4·1:55
Kayla McBride makes 1-foot layup (Natasha Howard assists)
·
MIN 83·CHI 75
−3pp
Q4·2:13
Kamilla Cardoso makes running layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
MIN 81·CHI 75
+2pp
Q4·2:18
Olivia Miles bad pass turnover (Azura Stevens steals)
·
MIN 81·CHI 73
+1pp
Q4·2:31
Azura Stevens bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
MIN 81·CHI 73
−2pp
Q4·2:36
Courtney Williams makes driving layup
·
MIN 81·CHI 73
−3pp
Q4·2:45
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 73
−1pp
Q4·2:47
Azura Stevens misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 79·CHI 73
−3pp
Q4·2:57
Natasha Howard enters the game for Liatu King
·
MIN 79·CHI 73
Q4·2:57
shot clock turnover
MIN 79·CHI 73
+4pp
Q4·2:57
Liatu King offensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 73
−3pp
Q4·2:57
Olivia Miles misses two point shot
MIN 79·CHI 73
+2pp
Q4·3:21
Azura Stevens makes layup (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
MIN 79·CHI 73
+3pp
Q4·3:33
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 71

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 168.5·MIN -125/CHI +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 85–75.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

CHI

eFG%

shooting

45.9%

35.6%

TOV%

ball control

18.6%

11.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

38.2%

14.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

23.0%

31.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

16.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
26.8%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
28.6%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
31.8%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.95

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-155

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.0pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +33.0pp · implied 53.2%

CHI

no live price

Book	MIN	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-125★	+105	+33.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop