Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17ATL

DAL

3-3

6986

ATL

3-1

WNBAFri, May 22FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-0VegasATL -5.5

DAL · top performer

Odyssey Sims

G · #1

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

29.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 5:58

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	31	10	5-11	0-1	—	-26	11	2
A. SmithF · #8	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	-13	2	0
O. SimsG · #1	21	14	5-6	1-2	3-3	+4	1	5
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	25	2	1-11	0-5	—	-27	0	1
P. BueckersG · #5	31	7	3-13	1-6	0-2	-25	1	7
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
M. SiegristF · #20	17	5	2-8	1-1	—	-4	2	1
A. KuierF · #34	17	16	6-6	2-2	2-5	+8	4	0
L. YueruC · #28	5	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
A. FuddG · #35	21	7	3-9	1-4	—	-1	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	18	6	2-6	1-4	1-2	-2	4	5
Team		69	28-74	7-28	6-12		26	21
DNP: J. Quinerly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	36	6	3-6	0-3	—	+13	3	2
A. ReeseF · #5	32	15	7-11	—	1-2	+12	9	2
A. GrayG · #15	34	16	7-14	0-3	2-2	+12	4	1
J. CanadaG · #3	30	9	4-9	1-2	—	+13	5	6
R. HowardG · #10	35	25	7-12	2-3	9-9	+18	4	8
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	4	2	1-2	—	—	+9	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	8	0	—	—	—	0	5	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	13	9	3-4	3-3	—	+4	2	2
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	5	2	1-3	0-1	—	0	1	1
I. BorlaseG · #20	2	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	0
Team		86	34-62	6-15	12-13		35	22
DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

28-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-62

FG %

7-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-15

6-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

May 13

ATL77@

DAL72

May 22

DAL69@

ATL86today

Jul 30

ATL@

DALupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+16438%

ATL-19866%

20· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+2.0 since open

Total

173.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat DAL 86-69. R. Howard paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. ATL outscored the other side 23-11 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST

GS 18

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 28

ATLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL3rd Quarter · 1:42 · 54-57

+14pp→ 77% WP

Paige Bueckers · technical foul

ATL4th Quarter · 5:58 · 64-69

+15pp→ 87% WP

Awak Kuier · traveling turnover

ATL4th Quarter · 3:57 · 65-71

+8pp→ 93% WP

Aziaha James · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	9	22	27	11	69
ATL	19	25	19	23	86

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · ATL won 3

Fudd 5

Howard 6

Sims 5

Reese 7

Kuier 12

Howard 5

Sims 6

James 11

DAL

ATL

Shooting comparison

DAL

ATL

38%

28-74

55%

34-62

25%

7-28

3PT

40%

6-15

50%

6-12

92%

12-13

Play-by-play · 383 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 69·ATL 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 69·ATL 86
Q4·16.5
Odyssey Sims makes driving layup
DAL 69·ATL 86
Q4·33.4
Indya Nivar makes driving layup
DAL 67·ATL 86
Q4·42.5
Indya Nivar defensive rebound
DAL 67·ATL 84
Q4·43.6
Maddy Siegrist misses 5-foot turnaround jump shot
DAL 67·ATL 84
Q4·51.6
Isobel Borlase makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
·
DAL 67·ATL 84
Q4·1:04
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 67·ATL 82
Q4·1:04
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 66·ATL 82
Q4·1:04
Isobel Borlase personal foul
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Alysha Clark enters the game for Jessica Shepard
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Li Yueru enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Indya Nivar enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Sika Kone enters the game for Angel Reese
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Allisha Gray loose ball foul
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:07
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:08
Aziaha James misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:22
Rhyne Howard makes driving layup
DAL 65·ATL 82
Q4·1:34
Angel Reese defensive rebound
DAL 65·ATL 80
Q4·1:36
Aziaha James misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 65·ATL 80
Q4·1:49
Allisha Gray makes driving layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
DAL 65·ATL 80
Q4·1:55
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
DAL 65·ATL 78
Q4·1:57
Paige Bueckers misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 65·ATL 78
Q4·2:06
Allisha Gray makes driving layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
DAL 65·ATL 78
Q4·2:26
Arike Ogunbowale loose ball foul
DAL 65·ATL 76
Q4·2:26
Dream defensive team rebound
DAL 65·ATL 76

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 173.5·DAL +164/ATL -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Dallas Wings, 86–69.

ATL -5.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 173.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

ATL

eFG%

shooting

42.6%

59.7%

TOV%

ball control

15.0%

20.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

23.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

8.1%

19.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
81.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.7%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.53

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-170

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.9pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

ATL

★ best

-198DraftKings

edge +14.9pp · implied 63.7%

Book	DAL	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+164	-198★	+14.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high
Rhyne HowardATL
15.4± 6.9high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Madina OkotATL
4.2± 2.2high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.3± 3.2high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high
Shatori Walker-KimbroughATL
0.7± 1.1low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop