Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at IND?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8IND

3-2

8290

IND

4-2

WNBAFri, May 22FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1VegasIND -5.5

GS · top performer

Tiffany Hayes

G · #15

12.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 9.3

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	27	10	3-5	1-2	3-3	-9	2	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	22	6	2-8	0-3	2-2	-6	0	3
K. StokesC · #41	23	2	1-4	0-1	—	-1	7	1
K. CharlesG · #6	23	4	0-6	0-3	4-4	-9	7	1
V. BurtonG · #22	29	17	4-12	2-5	7-8	-6	3	3
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	11	2	1-3	—	0-2	0	4	1
J. SalaunF · #13	21	4	1-8	0-4	2-2	-6	2	0
T. HayesG · #15	26	19	7-13	2-2	3-3	0	2	2
K. ChenG · #2	19	18	7-11	2-2	2-3	-3	1	0
Team		82	26-70	7-22	23-27		28	11
DNP: C. Zandalasini, N. Mwenentanda, J. Jocyte

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	11	2	1-2	—	—	+3	3	0
A. BostonC · #7	29	20	8-15	1-3	3-4	+15	16	3
K. MitchellG · #0	31	19	4-10	0-3	11-11	+6	0	3
L. HullG · #10	24	7	2-5	2-4	1-4	+10	4	2
C. ClarkG · #22	32	22	7-15	4-9	4-5	+7	2	9
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	13	2	0-2	—	2-2	0	2	2
M. TimpsonF · #21	12	0	0-1	—	—	-3	5	0
G. VanSlootenF · #14	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	28	11	4-8	2-5	1-3	0	0	1
T. HarrisG · #52	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	15	7	3-5	1-2	—	+5	2	2
Team		90	29-63	10-26	22-29		34	22
DNP: D. Dantas

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

26-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-63

FG %

7-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

May 22

GS82@

IND90today

May 29

IND88@

GS90

Jul 16

GS88@

IND75

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+17037%

IND-20567%

40· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -5.5↗SpreadBet IND -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-1.0 since open

Total

167.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat GS 90-82. A. Boston led with 20 PTS, 16 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 29-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

Bench(4)

43 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 26

INDstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 53

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 9.3 · 44-37

+10pp→ 65% WP

Kaitlyn Chen · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 6:29 · 48-44

+9pp→ 55% WP

Tiffany Hayes · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

IND3rd Quarter · 5:28 · 48-45

+9pp→ 48% WP

Tiffany Hayes · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	18	26	17	21	82
IND	19	18	29	24	90

Period scoring

GS won 1 · IND won 3

Thornton 5

Mitchell 6

Chen 9

Clark 5

Hayes 5

Clark 8

Burton 9

Boston 7

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

37%

26-70

46%

29-63

32%

7-22

3PT

38%

10-26

85%

23-27

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·14.3
Raven Johnson defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·17.4
Tiffany Hayes misses two point shot
GS 82·IND 90
+0.5pp
Q4·22.7
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·24.2
Lexie Hull misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
−0.6pp
Q4·24.2
Fever offensive team rebound
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·24.2
Lexie Hull misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·24.2
Kayla Thornton personal foul
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·25.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·29.4
Janelle Salaun misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
GS 82·IND 90
+0.5pp
Q4·30.9
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 82·IND 90
Q4·30.9
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
−0.6pp
Q4·30.9
Raven Johnson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
GS 82·IND 89
Q4·30.9
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
GS 82·IND 89
Q4·30.9
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 82·IND 89
Q4·30.9
Veronica Burton personal foul
GS 82·IND 88
+1pp
Q4·33.4
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
GS 82·IND 88
Q4·33.4
Fever Full timeout
GS 82·IND 88
Q4·33.4
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 88
+2pp
Q4·33.4
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Raven Johnson
·
GS 81·IND 88
Q4·33.4
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·IND 88
Q4·33.4
Raven Johnson loose ball foul
GS 80·IND 88
−2pp
Q4·33.4
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 80·IND 88
−0.5pp
Q4·34.4
Veronica Burton misses 8-foot two point shot
GS 80·IND 88
+0.8pp
Q4·41.8
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 80·IND 88
Q4·41.8
Gabby Williams enters the game for Kaitlyn Chen
·
GS 80·IND 88
Q4·41.8
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 80·IND 88
Q4·41.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 80·IND 88
−0.7pp
Q4·41.8
Raven Johnson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
GS 80·IND 87

Betting line

IND -5.5·O/U 167.5·GS +170/IND -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Golden State Valkyries, 90–82.

IND -5.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

42.1%

54.0%

TOV%

ball control

14.6%

19.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

27.8%

30.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

32.9%

34.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
59.4%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.3%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.28

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+260

Close price

+210

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

30.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at IND?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.5pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +13.5pp · implied 35.5%

IND

no live price

Book	GS	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+170★	-205	+13.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
16.0± 6.7high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Tyasha HarrisIND
3.0± 1.6high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop