Jun 22, 25sim 95
979
14(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8IND
GS
3-2
8290
IND
4-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 368 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Golden State Valkyries, 90–82.
IND -5.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
12.5Game score
19
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
19.6Game score
20
Pts
16
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS3-2
8290
IND4-2
GS3-2IND4-2
GS
3-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 22 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 23 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 23 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 29 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | |
| 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 26 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 82 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: C. Zandalasini, N. Mwenentanda, J. Jocyte | ||||||||
IND
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 29 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 31 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 24 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 32 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | +7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 28 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| Team | 90 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 18 | ||
| DNP: D. Dantas | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
46
11
Ast
22
Season series
Series tied 1-1
May 22GS82@IND90today
GS82@IND90todayMay 29IND88@GS90
IND88@GS90Jul 16GS@INDupcoming
GS@INDupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+17037%IND-20567%40· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
-1.0 since open
Total
167.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 9.3
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 26 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 29 min
20 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat GS 90-82. A. Boston led with 20 PTS, 16 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 29-17 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST
GS 24
Bench(4)
43 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 26
INDstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST
GS 53
Bench(6)
20 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 9.3 · 44-37
+10pp→ 65% WP
Kaitlyn Chen · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)
GS3rd Quarter · 6:29 · 48-44
+9pp→ 55% WP
Tiffany Hayes · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND3rd Quarter · 5:28 · 48-45
+9pp→ 48% WP
Tiffany Hayes · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 18 | 26 | 17 | 21 | 82 |
| IND | 19 | 18 | 29 | 24 | 90 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · IND won 3
18
19
Q1
Thornton 5
Mitchell 6
26
18
Q2
Chen 9
Clark 5
17
29
Q3
Hayes 5
Clark 8
21
24
Q4
Burton 9
Boston 7
GS
IND
Shooting comparison
GS
IND
37%
26-70
FG
46%
29-63
32%
7-22
3PT
38%
10-26
85%
23-27
FT
76%
22-29
Play-by-play · 468 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·14.3
Raven Johnson defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·17.4
Tiffany Hayes misses two point shot
GS 82·IND 90
+0.5pp
- Q4·22.7
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·24.2
Lexie Hull misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
−0.6pp
- Q4·24.2
Fever offensive team rebound
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·24.2
Lexie Hull misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·24.2
Kayla Thornton personal foul
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·25.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·29.4
Janelle Salaun misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
GS 82·IND 90
+0.5pp
- Q4·30.9
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 82·IND 90
- Q4·30.9
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 90
−0.6pp
- Q4·30.9
Raven Johnson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
GS 82·IND 89
- Q4·30.9
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
GS 82·IND 89
- Q4·30.9
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 82·IND 89
- Q4·30.9
Veronica Burton personal foul
GS 82·IND 88
+1pp
- Q4·33.4
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
GS 82·IND 88
- Q4·33.4
Fever Full timeout
GS 82·IND 88
- Q4·33.4
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·IND 88
+2pp
- Q4·33.4
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Raven Johnson
·
GS 81·IND 88
- Q4·33.4
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·IND 88
- Q4·33.4
Raven Johnson loose ball foul
GS 80·IND 88
−2pp
- Q4·33.4
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 80·IND 88
−0.5pp
- Q4·34.4
Veronica Burton misses 8-foot two point shot
GS 80·IND 88
+0.8pp
- Q4·41.8
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 80·IND 88
- Q4·41.8
Gabby Williams enters the game for Kaitlyn Chen
·
GS 80·IND 88
- Q4·41.8
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 80·IND 88
- Q4·41.8
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 80·IND 88
−0.7pp
- Q4·41.8
Raven Johnson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
GS 80·IND 87
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
IND
Home
26-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-63
37
FG %
46
7-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-26
23-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-29
11
Assists
22
14
Turnovers
18
Betting line
IND -5.5·O/U 167.5·GS +170/IND -205
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+4.28
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+260
Close price
+210
Open no-vig
26.6%
Close no-vig
30.9%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss
Player projections
IND vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
IND
41.3%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.1%
86.4
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.4