WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+18SEA

CON

1-6

5977

SEA

2-4

WNBAFri, May 22FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasSEA -1.5

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm held off Connecticut Sun, 77–59. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 165.5 by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

Diamond Miller

F · #1

10.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Zia Cooke

G · #7

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	24	10	5-11	—	—	-3	7	2
D. MillerF · #1	23	13	3-6	0-1	7-8	-6	3	2
K. BurkeG · #25	25	7	3-9	1-5	0-1	-1	3	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	30	5	2-9	1-3	—	-6	3	5
G. KneepkensG · #5	11	4	2-5	0-3	—	+3	1	0
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	18	7	3-5	1-1	0-1	-25	6	0
R. BeersF · #15	14	4	2-4	0-1	—	-5	4	1
N. AnglomaF · #33	14	2	0-1	—	2-2	-3	3	1
H. Van LithG · #2	10	5	2-5	1-1	—	-12	0	1
S. RiversG · #22	21	2	1-6	0-1	0-2	-17	2	2
A. JacksonG · #3	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-15	1	0
Team		59	23-62	4-17	9-14		33	15
DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa

DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	22	8	4-9	0-2	—	+18	4	0
S. DolsonC · #31	25	5	2-3	1-1	—	+24	4	4
N. HiedemanG · #2	27	11	4-10	1-4	2-2	+12	2	6
F. JohnsonG · #4	31	17	7-12	3-6	—	+18	7	5
J. MelbourneG · #5	20	4	2-5	—	0-1	+4	3	4
Bench
J. HolmesF · #24	15	2	1-4	0-1	—	-2	5	1
M. HolmesF · #54	18	2	0-2	—	2-4	-4	6	1
T. ThierryF · #3	4	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
L. BrownG · #8	13	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	1	0
Z. CookeG · #7	24	25	7-14	2-6	9-10	+18	5	1
Team		77	28-60	8-21	13-17		38	22
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga, A. Fam

DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga, A. Fam

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 10

SEA89@

CON82

May 21

CON80@

SEA78

May 23

CON59@

SEA77today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+11048%

SEA-13057%

13· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

165.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 1:46

CON

D. Miller

Game leader · 23 min

13 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST

SEA

Z. Cooke

Game leader · 24 min

25 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

SEA beat CON 77-59. Z. Cooke paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. SEA outscored the other side 18-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 28

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

SEAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON1st Quarter · 3:28 · 17-11

+7pp→ 57% WP

Flau'jae Johnson · bad pass turnover (Aaliyah Edwards steals)

SEA1st Quarter · 1:46 · 19-11

+7pp→ 39% WP

Kennedy Burke · misses 25-foot three point jumper

SEA2nd Quarter · 6:12 · 25-27

+7pp→ 69% WP

Charlisse Leger-Walker · misses 22-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	21	7	15	16	59
SEA	19	18	16	24	77

Period scoring

CON won 1 · SEA won 3

Burke 5

Cooke 8

Miller 3

Cooke 8

Edwards 4

Johnson 6

Miller 6

Hiedeman 17

CON

SEA

Shooting comparison

CON

SEA

37%

23-62

47%

28-60

24%

4-17

3PT

38%

8-21

64%

9-14

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 374 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·17.0
Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·17.0
Zia Cooke makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·SEA 76
Q4·17.0
Nell Angloma shooting foul
CON 59·SEA 75
Q4·37.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes running layup
CON 59·SEA 75
Q4·40.6
Joyner Holmes bad pass turnover (Charlisse Leger-Walker steals)
· ·
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·56.1
Diamond Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:04
Nell Angloma defensive rebound
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:10
Zia Cooke misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:20
Taylor Thierry offensive rebound
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:23
Flau'jae Johnson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Kennedy Burke
·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Joyner Holmes enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
· ·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Mackenzie Holmes shooting foul
·
CON 55·SEA 75
Q4·1:54
Zia Cooke makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
CON 55·SEA 75
Q4·2:16
Aaliyah Edwards makes 20-foot jump bank shot (Nell Angloma assists)
·
CON 55·SEA 73
Q4·2:22
Nell Angloma enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 53·SEA 73
Q4·2:38
Flau'jae Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
·
CON 53·SEA 73
Q4·2:56
Diamond Miller makes running layup
CON 53·SEA 70
Q4·3:00
Natisha Hiedeman bad pass turnover (Diamond Miller steals)
·
CON 51·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 51·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 50·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Flau'jae Johnson shooting foul
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Jordan Horston
· ·
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Stefanie Dolson offensive foul turnover
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Stefanie Dolson offensive foul
CON 49·SEA 70

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

23-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-60

FG %

4-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-21

9-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 165.5·CON +110/SEA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283
Jade MelbourneSEA · G
AST/TO2.072

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
79.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
79.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.9%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-155

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.8pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

CON

no live price

SEA

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +23.8pp · implied 54.3%

Book	CON	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+110	-130★	+23.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Natisha HiedemanSEA
15.1± 6.5medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
13.1± 8.1low
Brittney GrinerCON
12.2± 5.4low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.2± 5.1medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
5.5± 3.8medium

Assists

Leila LacanCON
5.2± 3.0low
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.0medium
Saniya RiversCON
3.3± 2.1medium

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.3± 1.6low
Saniya RiversCON
1.0± 0.9medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
0.9± 1.4low

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.7± 1.6low
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low
Jordan HorstonSEA
1.3± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

league avg

SEA

42.1%

FG%

◀

44.3

40.7%

26.3%

3PT %

33.0

▶

33.1%

77.9

PPG

◀

85.2

76.4

18.7

Assists / G

◀

18.0

17.7

14.3

Turnovers / G

13.0

14.2

Data via ESPN · wehoop