Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+18SEA

CON

1-6

5977

SEA

2-4

WNBAFri, May 22FinalSeriesSEA wins series 2-1VegasSEA -1.5

CON · top performer

Diamond Miller

F · #1

10.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Zia Cooke

G · #7

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 1:46

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	24	10	5-11	—	—	-3	7	2
D. MillerF · #1	23	13	3-6	0-1	7-8	-6	3	2
K. BurkeG · #25	25	7	3-9	1-5	0-1	-1	3	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	30	5	2-9	1-3	—	-6	3	5
G. KneepkensG · #5	11	4	2-5	0-3	—	+3	1	0
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	18	7	3-5	1-1	0-1	-25	6	0
R. BeersF · #15	14	4	2-4	0-1	—	-5	4	1
N. AnglomaF · #33	14	2	0-1	—	2-2	-3	3	1
H. Van LithG · #2	10	5	2-5	1-1	—	-12	0	1
S. RiversG · #22	21	2	1-6	0-1	0-2	-17	2	2
A. JacksonG · #3	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-15	1	0
Team		59	23-62	4-17	9-14		33	15
DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	22	8	4-9	0-2	—	+18	4	0
S. DolsonC · #31	25	5	2-3	1-1	—	+24	4	4
N. HiedemanG · #2	27	11	4-10	1-4	2-2	+12	2	6
F. JohnsonG · #4	31	17	7-12	3-6	—	+18	7	5
J. MelbourneG · #5	20	4	2-5	—	0-1	+4	3	4
Bench
J. HolmesF · #24	15	2	1-4	0-1	—	-2	5	1
M. HolmesF · #54	18	2	0-2	—	2-4	-4	6	1
T. ThierryF · #3	4	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
L. BrownG · #8	13	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	1	0
Z. CookeG · #7	24	25	7-14	2-6	9-10	+18	5	1
Team		77	28-60	8-21	13-17		38	22
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga, A. Fam

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

23-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-60

FG %

4-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-21

9-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SEA wins series 2-1

May 10

SEA89@

CON82

May 21

CON80@

SEA78

May 23

CON59@

SEA77today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+11048%

SEA-13057%

13· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

165.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat CON 77-59. Z. Cooke paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. SEA outscored the other side 18-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 28

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

SEAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON1st Quarter · 3:28 · 17-11

+7pp→ 57% WP

Flau'jae Johnson · bad pass turnover (Aaliyah Edwards steals)

SEA1st Quarter · 1:46 · 19-11

+7pp→ 39% WP

Kennedy Burke · misses 25-foot three point jumper

SEA2nd Quarter · 6:12 · 25-27

+7pp→ 69% WP

Charlisse Leger-Walker · misses 22-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	21	7	15	16	59
SEA	19	18	16	24	77

Period scoring

CON won 1 · SEA won 3

Burke 5

Cooke 8

Miller 3

Cooke 8

Edwards 4

Johnson 6

Miller 6

Hiedeman 17

CON

SEA

Shooting comparison

CON

SEA

37%

23-62

47%

28-60

24%

4-17

3PT

38%

8-21

64%

9-14

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 374 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·17.0
Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 59·SEA 77
Q4·17.0
Zia Cooke makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 59·SEA 76
Q4·17.0
Nell Angloma shooting foul
CON 59·SEA 75
Q4·37.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes running layup
CON 59·SEA 75
Q4·40.6
Joyner Holmes bad pass turnover (Charlisse Leger-Walker steals)
· ·
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·56.1
Diamond Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:04
Nell Angloma defensive rebound
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:10
Zia Cooke misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:20
Taylor Thierry offensive rebound
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:23
Flau'jae Johnson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 57·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Kennedy Burke
·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Joyner Holmes enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
· ·
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 56·SEA 75
Q4·1:33
Mackenzie Holmes shooting foul
·
CON 55·SEA 75
Q4·1:54
Zia Cooke makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
CON 55·SEA 75
Q4·2:16
Aaliyah Edwards makes 20-foot jump bank shot (Nell Angloma assists)
·
CON 55·SEA 73
Q4·2:22
Nell Angloma enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 53·SEA 73
Q4·2:38
Flau'jae Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
·
CON 53·SEA 73
Q4·2:56
Diamond Miller makes running layup
CON 53·SEA 70
Q4·3:00
Natisha Hiedeman bad pass turnover (Diamond Miller steals)
·
CON 51·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Diamond Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 51·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 50·SEA 70
Q4·3:12
Flau'jae Johnson shooting foul
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Jordan Horston
· ·
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Stefanie Dolson offensive foul turnover
CON 49·SEA 70
Q4·3:25
Stefanie Dolson offensive foul
CON 49·SEA 70

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 165.5·CON +110/SEA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm held off Connecticut Sun, 77–59. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 165.5 by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

SEA

eFG%

shooting

40.3%

53.3%

TOV%

ball control

15.0%

18.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.0%

19.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

14.5%

21.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283
Jade MelbourneSEA · G
AST/TO2.072

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
79.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
78.2%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-155

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.1pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

CON

no live price

SEA

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +23.1pp · implied 54.3%

Book	CON	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+110	-130★	+23.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.0± 7.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
14.9± 7.9high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop