Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at NY?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17GS

3-1

8770

3-2

WNBAThu, May 21FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasNY -5.5

GS · top performer

Kayla Thornton

F · #5

10.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

14.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:35

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	28	11	5-9	0-2	1-2	+16	5	1
G. WilliamsF · #1	21	16	4-11	4-6	4-6	+15	2	2
K. StokesC · #41	26	6	2-3	2-3	—	+6	3	3
K. CharlesG · #6	24	13	5-10	1-5	2-3	+22	7	1
V. BurtonG · #22	27	13	5-14	3-6	0-1	+25	4	7
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	13	5	2-3	—	1-2	+9	8	0
J. SalaunF · #13	26	12	3-11	2-7	4-5	+5	6	1
T. HayesG · #15	14	9	2-7	1-4	4-4	+3	1	2
M. SowahG · #7	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
K. ChenG · #2	15	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-9	0	1
N. MwenentandaG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		87	28-71	13-35	18-25		36	18
DNP: A. Prechtel

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	30	18	7-13	0-1	4-6	-14	9	2
S. SaballyF · #0	16	5	2-8	1-3	—	-4	4	2
J. JonesC · #35	28	16	6-12	1-3	3-4	-14	8	3
M. JohannesG · #23	26	0	0-5	0-5	—	-7	3	1
P. AstierG · #18	25	7	3-5	1-1	—	-12	5	2
Bench
A. FowlerF · #12	15	0	0-3	0-2	—	-6	0	0
H. XuC · #21	7	5	2-3	1-2	—	+3	0	0
R. GardnerG · #7	19	12	4-5	1-2	3-4	-10	2	0
J. VanlooG · #53	16	2	1-3	0-2	—	-4	2	8
R. AllenG · #9	17	5	1-5	1-3	2-2	-17	4	2
Team		70	26-62	6-24	12-16		37	20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

28-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-62

FG %

13-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-24

18-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

May 22

GS87@

NY70today

Jun 28

NY67@

GS76

Aug 28

GS@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

GS+19534%

NY-23870%

40· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

169.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat NY 87-70. K. Thornton led with 11 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 25-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 48

Bench(6)

28 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

NYstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 29 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 1:41 · 42-33

+9pp→ 66% WP

Kiah Stokes · makes 21-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 8:35 · 45-37

+10pp→ 65% WP

Kiah Stokes · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 7:55 · 48-37

+8pp→ 77% WP

Veronica Burton · makes 26-foot three pointer (Kiah Stokes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	25	17	21	24	87
NY	15	19	12	24	70

Period scoring

GS won 2 · NY won 1

Burton 6

Astier 7

Williams 5

Stewart 7

Thornton 5

Jones 6

Salaun 7

Gardner 7

Shooting comparison

39%

28-71

42%

26-62

37%

13-35

3PT

25%

6-24

72%

18-25

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 402 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 87·NY 70
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 87·NY 70
Q4·9.0
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 87·NY 70
Q4·9.0
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 87·NY 69
Q4·9.0
Laeticia Amihere shooting foul
GS 87·NY 68
Q4·22.5
Kaitlyn Chen makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 87·NY 68
Q4·22.5
Kaitlyn Chen makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 86·NY 68
Q4·22.5
Alex Fowler personal foul
GS 85·NY 68
Q4·40.3
Rebekah Gardner makes running layup (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
GS 85·NY 68
Q4·44.8
Kaitlyn Chen bad pass turnover (Alex Fowler steals)
·
GS 85·NY 66
Q4·1:04
Rebecca Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 85·NY 66
Q4·1:04
Rebecca Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 85·NY 65
Q4·1:04
Miela Sowah personal foul
GS 85·NY 64
Q4·1:04
Rebecca Allen offensive rebound
GS 85·NY 64
Q4·1:07
Han Xu misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 85·NY 64
Q4·1:22
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 85·NY 64
Q4·1:22
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 84·NY 64
Q4·1:22
Janelle Salaun misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 84·NY 64
Q4·1:22
Alex Fowler personal foul
GS 84·NY 64
Q4·1:29
Rebekah Gardner makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 84·NY 64
Q4·1:29
Liberty offensive team rebound
GS 84·NY 63
Q4·1:29
Rebekah Gardner misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 84·NY 63
Q4·1:29
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
GS 84·NY 63
Q4·1:29
Veronica Burton personal take foul
GS 84·NY 63
Q4·1:32
Janelle Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
GS 84·NY 63
Q4·1:54
Rebecca Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
GS 81·NY 63
Q4·2:15
Rebecca Allen defensive rebound
GS 81·NY 60
Q4·2:17
Kaitlyn Chen misses running layup
GS 81·NY 60
Q4·2:22
Julie Vanloo bad pass turnover (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
GS 81·NY 60
Q4·2:33
Julie Vanloo defensive rebound
GS 81·NY 60

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 169.5·GS +195/NY -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries went into New York Liberty and beat them, 87–70.

GS +5.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 169.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

eFG%

shooting

48.6%

46.8%

TOV%

ball control

5.7%

16.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.5%

18.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.4%

19.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.6%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
48.9%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.20

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+275

Close price

+245

Open no-vig

25.6%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at NY?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.6pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

+195DraftKings

edge +29.6pp · implied 32.5%

no live price

Book	GS	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+195★	-238	+29.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.7± 8.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.4± 8.4medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.7± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.8high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.5± 2.1medium
Breanna StewartNY
3.8± 2.5high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop