May 25, 26sim 98
13205281
9(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9LA
LA
2-3
9788
PHX
2-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 390 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 97–88.
LA +2.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total cleared the 178.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
30.5Game score
27
Pts
15
Reb
3
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
21.9Game score
23
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 12 | 5-11 | 2-2 | — | +6 | 6 | 2 | |
| 30 | 27 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 11-11 | +13 | 15 | 3 | |
| 26 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | -3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 34 | 16 | 6-14 | 4-10 | — | +14 | 1 | 7 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-1 | +2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5-6 | -1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 11 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | +9 | 1 | 1 | |
| 22 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +8 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 97 | 31-64 | 15-32 | 20-22 | 31 | 23 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, T. Latson | ||||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 35 | 23 | 7-13 | — | 9-11 | -5 | 7 | 7 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4-6 | — | 2-3 | +3 | 9 | 2 | |
| 36 | 22 | 7-20 | 1-7 | 7-10 | -14 | 5 | 2 | |
| 30 | 15 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 2-3 | -5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -13 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 88 | 29-69 | 8-25 | 22-29 | 33 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
42
23
Ast
17
Season series
LA leads series 1-0
May 22LA97@PHX88today
LA97@PHX88todayJun 14LA@PHXupcoming
LA@PHXupcomingJul 22PHX@LAupcoming
PHX@LAupcomingAug 12PHX@LAupcoming
PHX@LAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.4h
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LA+12045%PHX-14259%20· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+2.0 since open
Total
178.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 15pp · 1st Quarter · 9:00
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 30 min
27 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 35 min
23 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
LA beat PHX 97-88. D. Hamby paced them with 27 PTS, 15 REB, 3 AST. LA outscored the other side 35-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
26 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 15
PHXstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 62
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 0
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 9:00 · 0-2
+15pp→ 62% WP
Kahleah Copper · kicked ball turnover
PHX1st Quarter · 2:29 · 18-17
+7pp→ 53% WP
Marta Suarez · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kiana Williams assists)
LA2nd Quarter · 5:30 · 42-33
+7pp→ 72% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 25 | 35 | 22 | 15 | 97 |
| PHX | 24 | 19 | 27 | 18 | 88 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · PHX won 2
25
24
Q1
Plum 8
Williams 11
35
19
Q2
Ogwumike 10
Nogic 8
22
27
Q3
Hamby 13
Thomas 11
15
18
Q4
Hamby 4
Mack 6
LA
PHX
Shooting comparison
LA
PHX
48%
31-64
FG
42%
29-69
47%
15-32
3PT
32%
8-25
91%
20-22
FT
76%
22-29
Play-by-play · 429 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·11.0
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Kelsey Plum steals)
·
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·12.4
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·14.4
Nneka Ogwumike misses two point shot
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·30.3
Sparks timeout
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·30.3
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 97·PHX 88
- Q4·30.3
Mercury offensive team rebound
LA 97·PHX 87
- Q4·30.3
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 97·PHX 87
- Q4·30.3
Dearica Hamby loose ball foul
LA 97·PHX 87
+0.6pp
- Q4·30.3
Mercury defensive team rebound
LA 97·PHX 87
- Q4·33.1
Kelsey Plum misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 97·PHX 87
- Q4·50.2
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 97·PHX 87
- Q4·50.2
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 97·PHX 86
- Q4·50.2
Dearica Hamby personal foul
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·54.3
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·59.6
DeWanna Bonner blocks Ariel Atkins 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·1:15
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·1:17
Kahleah Copper misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·1:24
Mercury Full timeout
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·1:24
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 97·PHX 85
- Q4·1:24
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 96·PHX 85
- Q4·1:24
Jovana Nogic personal foul
LA 95·PHX 85
- Q4·1:39
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LA 95·PHX 85
- Q4·1:42
Natasha Mack misses 17-foot jumper
LA 95·PHX 85
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:53
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
LA 95·PHX 85
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:55
Alyssa Thomas misses driving layup
LA 95·PHX 85
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:05
Mercury defensive team rebound
LA 95·PHX 85
- Q4·2:07
Ariel Atkins misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 95·PHX 85
- Q4·2:24
Alyssa Thomas makes two point shot
LA 95·PHX 85
+0.5pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
31-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-69
48
FG %
42
15-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-25
20-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-29
23
Assists
17
17
Turnovers
13
Betting line
PHX -2.5·O/U 178.5·LA +120/PHX -142
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Natasha MackPHX · FTS%.74099+
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30296- Dearica HambyLA · FORB%.10488
Nneka OgwumikeLA · FeFG%.58986- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FAST/TO2.282
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
56.8%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
55.6%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
55.9%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.50 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+6.09
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-125
Close price
-162
Open no-vig
53.2%
Close no-vig
59.3%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+9.4pp
best edge · LA · DraftKings
LA
★ best+120DraftKings
edge +9.4pp · implied 43.7%
PHX
no live price
| Book | LA | PHX | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +120★ | -142 | +9.4 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
PHX vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.8± 9.8low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.5± 6.7low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.2± 5.1low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 3.1low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA7.3± 4.3low
- Dearica HambyLA7.1± 4.0low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.5± 2.5low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.6± 3.6low
- Erica WheelerLA5.0± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 1.3low
- Natasha MackPHX1.5± 1.9low
- DeWanna BonnerPHX0.6± 1.3low
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX2.0± 0.9low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.9± 1.7low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.8± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
PHX
48.1%
FG%
◀
44.4
41.3%
33.0%
3PT %
◀
32.9
30.6%
88.7
PPG
◀
84.8
81.7
20.2
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
15.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.6