Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+28MIN

TOR

3-3

72100

MIN

3-2

WNBAThu, May 21FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -5.5

TOR · top performer

Kia Nurse

G · #11

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Maya Caldwell

G · #3

14.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ MIN

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. CondeF · #10	20	3	1-6	1-4	—	-20	1	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	26	7	2-7	1-6	2-2	-22	3	2
B. SykesG · #20	20	6	2-7	1-4	1-1	-14	3	4
M. MabreyG · #3	19	3	1-9	0-8	1-1	-21	2	1
K. RiceG · #1	23	11	3-7	2-3	3-4	-12	6	4
Bench
T. KeyF · #7	16	4	2-5	0-1	—	-12	3	0
N. MilicF · #31	14	8	4-6	0-1	—	-11	1	1
M. FasoulaC · #34	11	4	2-5	—	—	-2	1	1
K. NurseG · #11	27	23	6-13	6-11	5-6	-15	4	2
L. HeldG · #12	23	3	1-6	1-3	—	-11	1	3
Team		72	24-71	12-41	12-14		25	19
DNP: I. Harrison, N. Sabally, T. Fagbenle, J. Allemand

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	22	13	5-7	—	3-4	+20	6	3
N. CoffeyF · #12	25	8	4-4	—	—	+11	3	2
K. McBrideG · #21	23	13	5-8	1-3	2-3	+19	4	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	29	15	6-15	3-8	—	+18	8	3
O. MilesG · #5	23	14	6-10	0-1	2-2	+22	4	5
Bench
L. KingF · #2	19	9	3-5	1-2	2-4	+9	7	0
A. DelaereF · #8	18	3	1-3	1-3	—	+10	1	4
A. KosuF · #7	14	5	2-4	—	1-2	+16	4	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	22	16	6-12	4-7	—	+11	3	3
E. HamzovaG · #11	5	4	0-1	—	4-6	+4	6	2
Team		100	38-69	10-24	14-21		46	24
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

24-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-69

FG %

12-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-24

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

May 22

TOR72@

MIN100today

Jul 29

TOR93@

MIN100

Jul 31

MIN@

TORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

TOR+18535%

MIN-22569%

8· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

172.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 100-72. M. Caldwell led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 42% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 11

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 30

MINstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	14	18	16	24	72
MIN	27	26	23	24	100

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · MIN won 3

Nurse 6

McBride 7

Milic 6

Williams 10

Rice 9

Miles 7

Nurse 14

Caldwell 9

TOR

MIN

Shooting comparison

TOR

MIN

34%

24-71

55%

38-69

29%

12-41

3PT

42%

10-24

86%

12-14

67%

14-21

Play-by-play · 398 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·20.6
Liatu King defensive rebound
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·23.8
Nikolina Milic misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·36.2
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·37.2
Maya Caldwell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Eliska Hamzova assists)
·
TOR 72·MIN 100
Q4·39.9
Eliska Hamzova offensive rebound
TOR 72·MIN 97
Q4·42.8
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses 14-foot running jump shot
TOR 72·MIN 97
Q4·47.5
Eliska Hamzova defensive rebound
TOR 72·MIN 97
Q4·50.3
Kia Nurse misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
TOR 72·MIN 97
Q4·1:00
Eliska Hamzova makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 72·MIN 97
Q4·1:00
Eliska Hamzova makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 72·MIN 96
Q4·1:00
Lexi Held shooting foul
TOR 72·MIN 95
Q4·1:15
Nikolina Milic makes layup (Kia Nurse assists)
·
TOR 72·MIN 95
Q4·1:30
Nikolina Milic defensive rebound
TOR 70·MIN 95
Q4·1:32
Maya Caldwell misses two point shot
TOR 70·MIN 95
Q4·1:44
Kia Nurse makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mariella Fasoula assists)
·
TOR 70·MIN 95
Q4·2:08
Maya Caldwell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Antonia Delaere assists)
·
TOR 67·MIN 95
Q4·2:22
Liatu King defensive rebound
TOR 67·MIN 92
Q4·2:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Mariella Fasoula 's 2-foot reverse layup
·
TOR 67·MIN 92
Q4·2:37
Eliska Hamzova makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 67·MIN 92
Q4·2:37
Lynx offensive team rebound
TOR 67·MIN 91
Q4·2:37
Eliska Hamzova misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 67·MIN 91
Q4·2:37
Lexi Held personal foul
TOR 67·MIN 91
Q4·2:48
Nikolina Milic makes layup (Kia Nurse assists)
·
TOR 67·MIN 91
Q4·2:54
Nikolina Milic enters the game for Teonni Key
·
TOR 65·MIN 91
Q4·2:54
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 65·MIN 91
Q4·2:55
Mariella Fasoula misses layup
TOR 65·MIN 91
Q4·3:12
Antonia Delaere makes 23-foot running jump shot (Eliska Hamzova assists)
·
TOR 65·MIN 91
Q4·3:16
Eliska Hamzova defensive rebound
TOR 65·MIN 88

Betting line

MIN -5.5·O/U 172.5·TOR +185/MIN -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Toronto Tempo, 100–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -5.5 cashed (won by 28). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

MIN

eFG%

shooting

42.3%

62.3%

TOV%

ball control

14.4%

15.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.5%

48.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.9%

20.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
78.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
75.2%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.34

CLV pp

Open price

-290

Close price

-270

Open no-vig

71.4%

Close no-vig

70.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.9pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

MIN

★ best

-225DraftKings

edge +9.9pp · implied 66.4%

Book	TOR	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+185	-225★	+9.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 70 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
23.1± 13.1high
Kayla McBrideMIN
22.2± 6.2high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.5± 7.8high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.4± 2.9high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium
Maria CondeTOR
5.3± 3.0high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.5± 1.9high
Julie AllemandTOR
6.4± 3.6high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.6± 2.1high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low
Natasha HowardMIN
1.0± 1.2high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
2.0± 1.5high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.6± 1.3high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop