Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at NY?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+31NY

CON

0-1

75106

1-0

WNBAFri, May 8FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -9.5

CON · top performer

Brittney Griner

C · #42

9.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ NY

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	25	16	6-16	1-6	3-5	-15	3	1
A. MorrowF · #24	24	15	7-15	1-5	—	-15	6	0
B. GrinerC · #42	27	13	6-11	0-1	1-1	-21	6	2
K. BurkeG · #25	24	4	2-8	0-1	—	-22	3	3
S. RiversG · #22	26	5	2-6	0-1	1-2	-27	2	6
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	11	1	0-1	—	1-4	-9	2	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	15	1	0-2	—	1-2	-15	2	3
H. Van LithG · #2	14	9	4-7	1-2	—	-7	1	4
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	21	4	2-9	0-2	0-1	-17	2	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	13	7	3-8	1-4	—	-7	5	1
Team		75	32-83	4-22	7-15		32	21
DNP: A. Edwards, S. Peddy, A. Jackson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	28	31	10-17	0-4	11-12	+21	10	2
J. JonesC · #35	25	10	3-7	1-5	3-4	+10	5	1
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	28	12	4-7	0-3	4-4	+15	2	4
M. JohannesG · #23	28	17	6-13	5-9	—	+17	5	3
P. AstierG · #18	20	5	2-4	—	1-3	+4	2	4
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	5	2	1-1	—	—	+6	0	0
H. XuC · #21	22	8	3-8	2-6	—	+25	2	1
R. GardnerG · #7	22	9	3-6	0-1	3-4	+26	4	0
J. VanlooG · #53	22	12	3-4	2-3	4-4	+31	7	11
Team		106	35-67	10-31	26-31		37	26
DNP: S. Sabally, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

Home

32-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-67

FG %

4-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-31

7-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106today

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80

Aug 15

NY@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+44019%

NY-60086%

100· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -9.5↗SpreadBet NY -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

-7.0 since open

Total

160.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CON 106-75. B. Stewart paced them with 31 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 36-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 25

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 11

NYstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 27

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	13	24	23	15	75
NY	36	30	21	19	106

Period scoring

CON won 1 · NY won 3

Miller 2

Stewart 10

Griner 7

Laney-Hamilton 26

Miller 7

Stewart 8

Morrow 6

Xu 6

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

39%

32-83

52%

35-67

18%

4-22

3PT

32%

10-31

47%

7-15

84%

26-31

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·16.6
Diamond Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·36.2
Aubrey Griffin makes driving layup
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·54.5
Aneesah Morrow makes 10-foot two point shot
CON 75·NY 104
Q4·56.8
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·58.4
Saniya Rivers misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·1:09
Rebekah Gardner makes running layup (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·1:09
Han Xu defensive rebound
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:11
Brittney Griner misses 5-foot two point shot
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:11
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:15
Aneesah Morrow misses two point shot
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:26
Han Xu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:35
Aneesah Morrow makes 16-foot step back jumpshot
CON 73·NY 99
Q4·1:53
Rebekah Gardner out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 71·NY 99
Q4·2:00
Aneesah Morrow makes two point shot
CON 71·NY 99
Q4·2:01
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:05
Han Xu blocks Diamond Miller 's 4-foot two point shot
·
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:06
Diamond Miller offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:11
Kennedy Burke misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:27
Aubrey Griffin out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Liberty defensive team rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Aneesah Morrow misses two point shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:38
Kennedy Burke misses tip shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:38
Kennedy Burke offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:40
Kennedy Burke misses driving layup
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:46
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:50
Julie Vanloo misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·3:07
Saniya Rivers out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 69·NY 99

Betting line

NY -9.5·O/U 160.5·CON +440/NY -600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Connecticut Sun, 106–75. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY -9.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 160.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

41.0%

59.7%

TOV%

ball control

15.2%

16.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.6%

25.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

8.4%

38.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.7%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
80.2%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
81.4%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
83.3%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+7.97

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+1100

Close price

+500

Open no-vig

8.0%

Close no-vig

16.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at NY?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

NY vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.7± 8.6high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.4± 8.4medium
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.7± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.8high
Aneesah MorrowCON
8.1± 5.0high

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.5± 2.1medium
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop