WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+31NY

CON

0-1

75106

1-0

WNBAFri, May 8FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -9.5

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Connecticut Sun, 106–75. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY -9.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 160.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

Brittney Griner

C · #42

9.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	25	16	6-16	1-6	3-5	-15	3	1
A. MorrowF · #24	24	15	7-15	1-5	—	-15	6	0
B. GrinerC · #42	27	13	6-11	0-1	1-1	-21	6	2
K. BurkeG · #25	24	4	2-8	0-1	—	-22	3	3
S. RiversG · #22	26	5	2-6	0-1	1-2	-27	2	6
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	11	1	0-1	—	1-4	-9	2	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	15	1	0-2	—	1-2	-15	2	3
H. Van LithG · #2	14	9	4-7	1-2	—	-7	1	4
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	21	4	2-9	0-2	0-1	-17	2	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	13	7	3-8	1-4	—	-7	5	1
Team		75	32-83	4-22	7-15		32	21
DNP: A. Edwards, S. Peddy, A. Jackson

DNP: A. Edwards, S. Peddy, A. Jackson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	28	31	10-17	0-4	11-12	+21	10	2
J. JonesC · #35	25	10	3-7	1-5	3-4	+10	5	1
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	28	12	4-7	0-3	4-4	+15	2	4
M. JohannesG · #23	28	17	6-13	5-9	—	+17	5	3
P. AstierG · #18	20	5	2-4	—	1-3	+4	2	4
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	5	2	1-1	—	—	+6	0	0
H. XuC · #21	22	8	3-8	2-6	—	+25	2	1
R. GardnerG · #7	22	9	3-6	0-1	3-4	+26	4	0
J. VanlooG · #53	22	12	3-4	2-3	4-4	+31	7	11
Team		106	35-67	10-31	26-31		37	26
DNP: S. Sabally, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

DNP: S. Sabally, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106today

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80

Aug 15

NY@

CONupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+44019%

NY-60086%

100· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -9.5↗SpreadBet NY -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

-7.0 since open

Total

160.5

-3.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ NY

CON

B. Griner

Game leader · 27 min

13 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST

B. Stewart

Game leader · 28 min30-point game

31 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

NY beat CON 106-75. B. Stewart paced them with 31 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 36-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 25

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 11

NYstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 27

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	13	24	23	15	75
NY	36	30	21	19	106

Period scoring

CON won 1 · NY won 3

Miller 2

Stewart 10

Griner 7

Laney-Hamilton 26

Miller 7

Stewart 8

Morrow 6

Xu 6

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

39%

32-83

52%

35-67

18%

4-22

3PT

32%

10-31

47%

7-15

84%

26-31

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·16.6
Diamond Miller out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·36.2
Aubrey Griffin makes driving layup
CON 75·NY 106
Q4·54.5
Aneesah Morrow makes 10-foot two point shot
CON 75·NY 104
Q4·56.8
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·58.4
Saniya Rivers misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·1:09
Rebekah Gardner makes running layup (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
CON 73·NY 104
Q4·1:09
Han Xu defensive rebound
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:11
Brittney Griner misses 5-foot two point shot
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:11
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:15
Aneesah Morrow misses two point shot
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:26
Han Xu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
CON 73·NY 102
Q4·1:35
Aneesah Morrow makes 16-foot step back jumpshot
CON 73·NY 99
Q4·1:53
Rebekah Gardner out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 71·NY 99
Q4·2:00
Aneesah Morrow makes two point shot
CON 71·NY 99
Q4·2:01
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:05
Han Xu blocks Diamond Miller 's 4-foot two point shot
·
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:06
Diamond Miller offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:11
Kennedy Burke misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:27
Aubrey Griffin out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Liberty defensive team rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Aneesah Morrow misses two point shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:36
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:38
Kennedy Burke misses tip shot
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:38
Kennedy Burke offensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:40
Kennedy Burke misses driving layup
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:46
Brittney Griner defensive rebound
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·2:50
Julie Vanloo misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 69·NY 99
Q4·3:07
Saniya Rivers out of bounds bad pass turnover
CON 69·NY 99

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

Home

32-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-67

FG %

4-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-31

7-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-31

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -9.5·O/U 160.5·CON +440/NY -600

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.0%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
80.2%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
79.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.8%
P(NY win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+7.97

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+1100

Close price

+500

Open no-vig

8.0%

Close no-vig

16.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

NY vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.7± 8.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
13.7± 6.0medium
Brittney GrinerCON
12.2± 5.4low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.2± 5.1medium
Jonquel JonesNY
9.4± 4.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.2medium

Assists

Leila LacanCON
5.2± 3.0low
Pauline AstierNY
3.9± 1.9medium
Saniya RiversCON
3.3± 2.1medium

Blocks

Jonquel JonesNY
1.5± 1.6medium
Brittney GrinerCON
1.3± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.1± 2.5medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.7± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.6medium
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

league avg

42.1%

FG%

44.3

▶

45.9%

26.3%

3PT %

33.0

▶

35.3%

77.9

PPG

85.2

▶

88.4

18.7

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop