GS
0-0
SEA
0-0
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
13
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
SEA · top performer
Jade Melbourne
G · #5
13
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Box score
GS
69
0-0
SEA
53
0-0
GS
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| K. Thornton★F · #5 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 |
 G. Williams★F · #1 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 |
 K. Stokes★C · #41 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +10 |
 T. Hayes★G · #15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
 V. Burton★G · #22 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7 |
 L. AmihereF · #3 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 |
 J. SalaunF · #13 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +16 |
 K. CharlesG · #6 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +17 |
 K. ChenG · #2 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 |
| Team | 69 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: M. Sowah, N. Mwenentanda | ||||||||
SEA
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 J. Horston★F · #23 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
 S. Dolson★C · #31 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -11 |
 D. Malonga★C · #14 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 |
 N. Hiedeman★G · #2 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
 F. Johnson★G · #4 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -12 |
 M. HolmesF · #54 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
 L. BrownG · #8 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -18 |
 Z. CookeG · #7 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| J. MelbourneG · #5 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 |
| Team | 53 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, T. Mair | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
38
16
Ast
10
Season series
GS@SEAtodayGS@SEAupcomingSEA@GSupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
157.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
GS-23870%SEA+19534%15· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+2.0 since open
Total
157.5
+2.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
10:00 - 4thGabby Williams · enters the game for Janelle Salaun
GSK. Thornton
FLeading · 10:00 - 4th · 23 min
13 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 23 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
SEAJ. Melbourne
GLeading · 10:00 - 4th · 15 min
13 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 35 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it's going
GS lead SEA 69-53 (10:00 - 4th). K. Thornton led with 13 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. GS have outscored the other side 26-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
SEA vs GS
Score progression
7 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
30 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST
GS 22
SEAstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
32 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST
GS 14
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactZia Cooke · enters the game for Flau'jae Johnson
Veronica Burton · makes driving layup
Laeticia Amihere · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 23 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 69 |
| SEA | 24 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 53 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · SEA won 1
Q1
Zandalasini 6
Cooke 7
Q2
Burton 9
Holmes 26
Q3
Chen 7
Dolson 3
Q4
Shooting comparison
41%
23-56
FG
38%
18-47
39%
11-28
3PT
30%
7-23
63%
12-19
FT
71%
10-14
Play-by-play · 317 plays
Gabby Williams enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
GS 69·SEA 53
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
GS 69·SEA 53
Grace VanSlooten enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
GS 69·SEA 53
End of the 3rd Quarter
GS 69·SEA 53
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 69·SEA 53
Kaitlyn Chen misses two point shot
GS 69·SEA 53
Zia Cooke bad pass turnover (Veronica Burton steals)
·
GS 69·SEA 53
−0.7pp
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
GS 69·SEA 53
Stefanie Dolson blocks Veronica Burton 's 2-foot driving layup
·
GS 69·SEA 53
+0.5pp
Lexie Brown offensive foul turnover
GS 69·SEA 53
Lexie Brown offensive foul
GS 69·SEA 53
−0.8pp
Lexie Brown defensive rebound
GS 69·SEA 53
Janelle Salaun misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 69·SEA 53
+0.8pp
Stefanie Dolson personal foul
GS 69·SEA 53
−1pp
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
GS 69·SEA 53
Lexie Brown misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 69·SEA 53
−0.5pp
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 69·SEA 53
+0.6pp
Janelle Salaun out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 69·SEA 53
(01:19) [Storm] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Storm] retain their timeout
GS 69·SEA 53
Storm Full timeout
GS 69·SEA 53
+0.6pp
Lexie Brown traveling turnover
GS 69·SEA 53
−0.7pp
Kaitlyn Chen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kayla Thornton assists)
·
GS 69·SEA 53
−2pp
Kayla Thornton offensive rebound
GS 66·SEA 53
−0.9pp
Janelle Salaun misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
GS 66·SEA 53
+0.8pp
Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 66·SEA 53
Storm offensive team rebound
GS 66·SEA 52
−0.8pp
Zia Cooke misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 66·SEA 52
−0.9pp
Kiah Stokes shooting foul
GS 66·SEA 52
+2pp
Stefanie Dolson defensive rebound
GS 66·SEA 52
Jordan Horston blocks Janelle Salaun 's 6-foot driving layup
·
GS 66·SEA 52
+0.5pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
23-56
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
18-47
41
FG %
38
11-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-23
12-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-14
16
Assists
10
7
Turnovers
13
Betting line
GS -5.5·O/U 157.5·GS -238/SEA +195