Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

WSH

1-0

6865

TOR

0-1

WNBAFri, May 8FinalSeriesWSH leads series 3-0VegasTOR -1.5

WSH · top performer

Sonia Citron

G · #22

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 37pp · 4th Quarter · 18.2

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. IriafenF · #44	28	12	5-9	0-2	2-4	+13	16	2
S. AustinC · #0	28	18	6-13	0-1	6-10	+13	11	2
S. CitronG · #22	34	26	9-12	3-6	5-8	+13	2	0
G. AmooreG · #8	20	6	2-9	2-7	—	+16	3	3
C. ProsperG · #18	19	2	1-5	0-3	—	+4	1	2
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	-10	2	0
L. BettsC · #51	12	0	0-4	—	—	-10	5	1
R. HarmonG · #3	20	0	0-2	—	—	-13	2	2
L. OlsenG · #33	10	0	0-3	0-1	—	-7	0	1
A. WilsonG · #4	17	2	1-3	0-2	—	-4	2	1
Team		68	25-64	5-24	13-22		44	14

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	26	8	3-8	0-2	2-4	-4	6	0
T. FagbenleC · #14	16	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	0	1	1
B. SykesG · #20	28	14	4-18	0-5	6-9	-4	3	2
M. MabreyG · #3	30	27	6-18	3-9	12-14	-7	7	2
J. AllemandG · #22	30	3	1-2	1-2	—	-6	3	2
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	15	2	0-4	0-1	2-2	+6	3	0
T. KeyF · #7	9	0	0-1	0-1	0-2	-3	3	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	15	7	2-6	1-2	2-2	+1	6	0
M. FasoulaC · #34	1	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	10	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	1
L. HeldG · #12	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
K. RiceG · #1	18	0	0-3	0-2	—	+1	3	1
Team		65	17-63	5-25	26-35		37	10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

25-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

17-63

FG %

5-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-25

13-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 3-0

May 8

WSH68@

TOR65today

Jun 12

TOR85@

WSH86

Jul 14

WSH79@

TOR62

Aug 19

TOR@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-10551%

TOR-11553%

10· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

160.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat TOR 68-65. S. Citron paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. Shakira Austin's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 33 REB · 9 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

4 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

TORstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Bench(7)

11 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

GS 4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 5:02 · 54-52

+21pp→ 64% WP

Maria Conde · makes free throw 1 of 2

WSH4th Quarter · 18.2 · 64-65

+31pp→ 63% WP

Nyara Sabally · personal foul

WSH4th Quarter · 18.2 · 65-65

+37pp→ 66% WP

Shakira Austin · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	17	20	14	17	68
TOR	13	17	17	18	65

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · TOR won 2

Austin 6

Sabally 4

Citron 7

Mabrey 10

Citron 12

Mabrey 11

Iriafen 6

Juskaite 7

WSH

TOR

Shooting comparison

WSH

TOR

39%

25-64

27%

17-63

21%

5-24

3PT

20%

5-25

59%

13-22

74%

26-35

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 68·TOR 65
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 68·TOR 65
−1pp
Q4·2.4
Marina Mabrey jumpball violation turnoverBIG MOMENT
WSH 68·TOR 65
−12pp
Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 68·TOR 65
+6pp
Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 67·TOR 65
−2pp
Q4·10.8
Laura Juskaite personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
−18pp
Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 66·TOR 65
−5pp
Q4·13.6
Brittney Sykes misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
−13pp
Q4·18.2
Tempo timeout
WSH 66·TOR 65
Q4·18.2
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
+12pp
Q4·18.2
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 65·TOR 65
−37pp
Q4·18.2
(00:18.2) [Tempo] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Tempo] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+16pp
Q4·18.2
Tempo Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+18pp
Q4·18.2
Nyara Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
−31pp
Q4·32.1
Tempo delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+14pp
Q4·32.1
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 64·TOR 65
Q4·32.1
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
−11pp
Q4·32.1
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 64·TOR 64
+3pp
Q4·32.1
Shakira Austin loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+16pp
Q4·32.1
Tempo offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+10pp
Q4·33.1
Marina Mabrey misses 4-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
−11pp
Q4·42.8
Nyara Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+9pp
Q4·45.3
Marina Mabrey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
−10pp
Q4·1:04
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 64·TOR 63
+2pp
Q4·1:04
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
+7pp
Q4·1:04
Kiki Iriafen misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
+7pp
Q4·1:04
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
−14pp
Q4·1:13
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 63·TOR 63
−2pp
Q4·1:16
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
−7pp
Q4·1:24
Tempo Full timeout
WSH 63·TOR 63

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 160.5·WSH -105/TOR -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 68–65. Decided by 3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 160.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

TOR

eFG%

shooting

43.0%

31.0%

TOV%

ball control

19.6%

16.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

24.3%

20.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

20.3%

41.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
71.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
75.5%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Lauren BettsWSH
0.8± 1.2high

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Laura JuskaiteTOR
1.2± 1.2high
Brittney SykesTOR
1.1± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop