WSH
1-0
TOR
0-1
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 68–65. Decided by 3.
WSH +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 160.5 by 27.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
26
Pts
2
Reb
0
Ast
TOR · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
27
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Toronto Tempo · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 2-4 | +13 | 16 | 2 | |
| 28 | 18 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 6-10 | +13 | 11 | 2 | |
| 34 | 26 | 9-12 | 3-6 | 5-8 | +13 | 2 | 0 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-7 | — | +16 | 3 | 3 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | +4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-4 | — | — | -10 | 5 | 1 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 68 | 25-64 | 5-24 | 13-22 | 44 | 14 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | -4 | 6 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 28 | 14 | 4-18 | 0-5 | 6-9 | -4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 30 | 27 | 6-18 | 3-9 | 12-14 | -7 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | -3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 15 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +1 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 65 | 17-63 | 5-25 | 26-35 | 37 | 10 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
27
14
Ast
10
Season series
WSH leads series 2-0
WSH68@TOR65todayTOR85@WSH86WSH@TORupcomingTOR@WSHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
160.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
WSH-10551%TOR-11553%10· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
160.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 37pp · 4th Quarter · 18.2
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 34 min
26 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
TORM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 30 min
27 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
WSH beat TOR 68-65. S. Citron paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. Shakira Austin's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 33 REB · 9 AST
GS 46
Bench(5)
4 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
TORstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 7 AST
GS 27
Bench(7)
11 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST
GS 4
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMaria Conde · makes free throw 1 of 2
Nyara Sabally · personal foul
Shakira Austin · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 68 |
| TOR | 13 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 65 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · TOR won 2
Q1
Austin 6
Sabally 4
Q2
Citron 7
Mabrey 10
Q3
Citron 12
Mabrey 11
Q4
Iriafen 6
Juskaite 7
Shooting comparison
39%
25-64
FG
27%
17-63
21%
5-24
3PT
20%
5-25
59%
13-22
FT
74%
26-35
Play-by-play · 469 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 68·TOR 65
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 68·TOR 65
−1pp
- Q4·2.4
Marina Mabrey jumpball violation turnoverBIG MOMENT
WSH 68·TOR 65
−12pp
- Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 68·TOR 65
+6pp
- Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 67·TOR 65
−2pp
- Q4·10.8
Laura Juskaite personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
−18pp
- Q4·10.8
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 66·TOR 65
−5pp
- Q4·13.6
Brittney Sykes misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
−13pp
- Q4·18.2
Tempo timeout
WSH 66·TOR 65
- Q4·18.2
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 66·TOR 65
+12pp
- Q4·18.2
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 65·TOR 65
−37pp
- Q4·18.2
(00:18.2) [Tempo] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Tempo] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+16pp
- Q4·18.2
Tempo Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+18pp
- Q4·18.2
Nyara Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
−31pp
- Q4·32.1
Tempo delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
+14pp
- Q4·32.1
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 64·TOR 65
- Q4·32.1
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 65
−11pp
- Q4·32.1
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 64·TOR 64
+3pp
- Q4·32.1
Shakira Austin loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+16pp
- Q4·32.1
Tempo offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+10pp
- Q4·33.1
Marina Mabrey misses 4-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
−11pp
- Q4·42.8
Nyara Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
+9pp
- Q4·45.3
Marina Mabrey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 64·TOR 63
−10pp
- Q4·1:04
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 64·TOR 63
+2pp
- Q4·1:04
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
+7pp
- Q4·1:04
Kiki Iriafen misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
+7pp
- Q4·1:04
Brittney Sykes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
−14pp
- Q4·1:13
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 63·TOR 63
−2pp
- Q4·1:16
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 63·TOR 63
−7pp
- Q4·1:24
Tempo Full timeout
WSH 63·TOR 63
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
25-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
17-63
39
FG %
27
5-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-25
13-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-35
14
Assists
10
18
Turnovers
16
Betting line
TOR -1.5·O/U 160.5·WSH -105/TOR -115
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Kiki IriafenWSH · FDRB%.30197- Marina MabreyTOR · GUSG%.29496
Shakira AustinWSH · CDRB%.28195
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · FORB%.10991
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
68.8%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
71.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
71.7%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
71.1%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-0.65
CLV pp
Open price
-118
Close price
-115
Open no-vig
51.7%
Close no-vig
51.1%
Market faded the model · Graded: miss
Player projections
TOR vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney SykesTOR19.5± 11.3medium
- Marina MabreyTOR17.8± 11.5low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.6± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
- Nyara SaballyTOR5.2± 2.2low
Assists
- Marina MabreyTOR3.7± 3.3low
- Julie AllemandTOR3.6± 2.0low
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Teonni KeyTOR0.7± 0.9medium
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.7± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.2± 1.6medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.2± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
TOR
44.5%
FG%
44.3
43.4%
29.3%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.9%
81.4
PPG
85.2
▶88.6
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.5
16.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7