Jul 27, 25sim 93
593
19(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+29IND
IND
23-20
9465
WSH
16-27
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 94–65. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aerial Powers
G · #23
15.3Game score
15
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
6.8Game score
17
Pts
2
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND23-20
9465
WSH16-27
IND23-20WSH16-27
IND
23-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 32 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +29 | |
| 24 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +22 | |
| 25 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 20 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 26 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +21 | |
| Team | 94 | 29 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 6 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, S. Colson, S. Cunningham, A. McDonald, C. Clark | ||||||||
WSH
16-27
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -33 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -19 | |
| 25 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -25 | |
| 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 32 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -19 | |
| 14 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 | |
| 22 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| Team | 65 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 21 | ||
| DNP: J. Sheldon, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
44
21
Ast
13
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28IND77@WSH83
IND77@WSH83Jun 3WSH76@IND85
WSH76@IND85Aug 15WSH88@IND84
WSH88@IND84Sep 7IND94@WSH65today
IND94@WSH65todayHeadlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:51
INDA. Powers
GGame leader · 26 min
15 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 32 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
IND beat WSH 94-65. A. Powers led with 15 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 32-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST
GS 44
Bench(6)
42 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST
GS 36
WSHstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST
GS 22
Bench(5)
15 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND1st Quarter · 5:53 · 6-6
+6pp→ 64% WP
Stefanie Dolson · traveling
WSH2nd Quarter · 9:39 · 19-22
+6pp→ 49% WP
Shakira Austin · makes driving layup
IND2nd Quarter · 4:51 · 32-29
+7pp→ 67% WP
Shey Peddy · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Odyssey Sims assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 19 | 26 | 17 | 32 | 94 |
| WSH | 20 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 65 |
Period scoring
IND won 3 · WSH won 1
19
20
Q1
Howard 7
Citron 9
26
18
Q2
Peddy 8
Austin 5
17
9
Q3
Mitchell 7
Iriafen 5
32
18
Q4
Howard 7
Iriafen 4
IND
WSH
Shooting comparison
IND
WSH
51%
36-70
FG
44%
25-57
47%
9-19
3PT
29%
4-14
68%
13-19
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 94·WSH 65
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 94·WSH 65
- Q4·21.4
Lucy Olsen makes layup
IND 94·WSH 65
- Q4·21.4
Lucy Olsen offensive rebound
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·21.4
Lucy Olsen misses layup
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·23.6
Emily Engstler offensive rebound
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·25.3
Sug Sutton misses layup
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·37.4
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·39.6
Bree Hall misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·1:01
Jade Melbourne makes driving layup
IND 94·WSH 63
- Q4·1:12
Damiris Dantas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aerial Powers assists)
·
IND 94·WSH 61
- Q4·1:20
Damiris Dantas defensive rebound
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:22
Lucy Olsen misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:39
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:41
Makayla Timpson misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:41
Sug Sutton enters the game for Sonia Citron
·
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:41
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 91·WSH 61
- Q4·1:41
Madison Scott personal foul
IND 90·WSH 61
- Q4·1:53
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 90·WSH 61
- Q4·1:53
Mystics offensive team rebound
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·1:53
Sonia Citron misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·1:53
Bree Hall shooting foul
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·1:57
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·1:58
Sonia Citron blocks Bree Hall 's 7-foot pullup jump shot
·
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·2:18
Emily Engstler traveling
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·2:25
Lucy Olsen defensive rebound
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·2:29
Lucy Olsen blocks Aerial Powers 's 5-foot jumper
·
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·2:44
Jade Melbourne out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·2:57
Aerial Powers personal foul
IND 90·WSH 60
- Q4·3:07
Makayla Timpson makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 90·WSH 60
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
36-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-57
51
FG %
44
9-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-14
13-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
21
Assists
13
6
Turnovers
21
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
WSH
45.4%
FG%
44.7
45.7%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6